[
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-001",
    "canonical_name": "Watchmaker's bench",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-001",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Supports posture, part control, and repeatable handwork at the watchmaker's station.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ergonomics, documentation, energy efficiency, and optional image or sensor capture improve, while the underlying physical function remains recognizable.",
    "scenario_2041": "Digitally assisted benches become common in institutional and high-value work, but low-cost manual versions remain globally important.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool persists as part of a mixed human–machine bench; value lies in reliability, tactile control, and compatibility rather than novelty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent core tool with selective digital augmentation",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Supports rather than replaces dexterity and judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low-cost control, visibility, organization, and error reduction",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Physical ergonomics and operator skill remain limiting",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-002",
    "canonical_name": "Bench pin",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-002",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Supports posture, part control, and repeatable handwork at the watchmaker's station.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ergonomics, documentation, energy efficiency, and optional image or sensor capture improve, while the underlying physical function remains recognizable.",
    "scenario_2041": "Digitally assisted benches become common in institutional and high-value work, but low-cost manual versions remain globally important.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool persists as part of a mixed human–machine bench; value lies in reliability, tactile control, and compatibility rather than novelty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent core tool with selective digital augmentation",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Supports rather than replaces dexterity and judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low-cost control, visibility, organization, and error reduction",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Physical ergonomics and operator skill remain limiting",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-003",
    "canonical_name": "Bench apron and parts-catching cloth",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-003",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Supports posture, part control, and repeatable handwork at the watchmaker's station.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ergonomics, documentation, energy efficiency, and optional image or sensor capture improve, while the underlying physical function remains recognizable.",
    "scenario_2041": "Digitally assisted benches become common in institutional and high-value work, but low-cost manual versions remain globally important.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool persists as part of a mixed human–machine bench; value lies in reliability, tactile control, and compatibility rather than novelty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent core tool with selective digital augmentation",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Supports rather than replaces dexterity and judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low-cost control, visibility, organization, and error reduction",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Physical ergonomics and operator skill remain limiting",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-004",
    "canonical_name": "Movement tray",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-004",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ergonomics, documentation, energy efficiency, and optional image or sensor capture improve, while the underlying physical function remains recognizable.",
    "scenario_2041": "Digitally assisted benches become common in institutional and high-value work, but low-cost manual versions remain globally important.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool persists as part of a mixed human–machine bench; value lies in reliability, tactile control, and compatibility rather than novelty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent core tool with selective digital augmentation",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Supports rather than replaces dexterity and judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low-cost control, visibility, organization, and error reduction",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Physical ergonomics and operator skill remain limiting",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-005",
    "canonical_name": "Compartmented parts cabinet",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-005",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Controls workshop hazards or monitors exposure.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ergonomics, documentation, energy efficiency, and optional image or sensor capture improve, while the underlying physical function remains recognizable.",
    "scenario_2041": "Digitally assisted benches become common in institutional and high-value work, but low-cost manual versions remain globally important.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool persists as part of a mixed human–machine bench; value lies in reliability, tactile control, and compatibility rather than novelty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent core tool with selective digital augmentation",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Supports rather than replaces dexterity and judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low-cost control, visibility, organization, and error reduction",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Physical ergonomics and operator skill remain limiting",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-006",
    "canonical_name": "Dust cover or bell jar",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-006",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ergonomics, documentation, energy efficiency, and optional image or sensor capture improve, while the underlying physical function remains recognizable.",
    "scenario_2041": "Digitally assisted benches become common in institutional and high-value work, but low-cost manual versions remain globally important.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool persists as part of a mixed human–machine bench; value lies in reliability, tactile control, and compatibility rather than novelty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent core tool with selective digital augmentation",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Supports rather than replaces dexterity and judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low-cost control, visibility, organization, and error reduction",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Physical ergonomics and operator skill remain limiting",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-007",
    "canonical_name": "Oil cup",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-007",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Meters lubricant or modifies surface behavior at designated friction points.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Dose repeatability, tip condition, fluid identification, and image-based verification improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production lubrication is increasingly robotically deposited and optically checked; hand lubrication remains for irregular service and restoration.",
    "scenario_2051": "The accepted dose and lubricant are linked to part, environmental target, and service record.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From manual dosing toward verified micro-deposition",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual judgment persists for capillary behavior, old surfaces, and exceptions",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower over-oiling, contamination, and variation",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Fluid aging, wetting behavior, proprietary lubricants, and visual detectability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-008",
    "canonical_name": "Bench lamp",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-008",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Supports posture, part control, and repeatable handwork at the watchmaker's station.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ergonomics, documentation, energy efficiency, and optional image or sensor capture improve, while the underlying physical function remains recognizable.",
    "scenario_2041": "Digitally assisted benches become common in institutional and high-value work, but low-cost manual versions remain globally important.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool persists as part of a mixed human–machine bench; value lies in reliability, tactile control, and compatibility rather than novelty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent core tool with selective digital augmentation",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Supports rather than replaces dexterity and judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low-cost control, visibility, organization, and error reduction",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Physical ergonomics and operator skill remain limiting",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-009",
    "canonical_name": "Watchmaker's loupe",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-009",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Enlarges or improves visibility so surfaces, alignment, contamination, and defects can be judged.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Higher-resolution cameras, depth measurement, image annotation, and searchable reference libraries become standard in high-value work.",
    "scenario_2041": "Computer vision pre-screens defects, compares prior condition images, and guides measurement; an accountable human remains responsible for conclusions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Visual inspection is multimodal and continuously documented, but direct optical viewing remains important for depth perception and adversarial cases.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From viewing aid to documented multimodal evidence system",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Augments observation and memory rather than replacing expert interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatable inspection, remote consultation, training, and stronger condition records",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Algorithm bias, lighting dependence, data retention, and misleading image enhancement",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Image provenance, privacy, false positives, and evidence chain of custody",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-010",
    "canonical_name": "Binocular head magnifier",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-010",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Enlarges or improves visibility so surfaces, alignment, contamination, and defects can be judged.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Higher-resolution cameras, depth measurement, image annotation, and searchable reference libraries become standard in high-value work.",
    "scenario_2041": "Computer vision pre-screens defects, compares prior condition images, and guides measurement; an accountable human remains responsible for conclusions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Visual inspection is multimodal and continuously documented, but direct optical viewing remains important for depth perception and adversarial cases.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From viewing aid to documented multimodal evidence system",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Augments observation and memory rather than replacing expert interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatable inspection, remote consultation, training, and stronger condition records",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Algorithm bias, lighting dependence, data retention, and misleading image enhancement",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Image provenance, privacy, false positives, and evidence chain of custody",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-011",
    "canonical_name": "Bench microscope",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-011",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Supports posture, part control, and repeatable handwork at the watchmaker's station.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Higher-resolution cameras, depth measurement, image annotation, and searchable reference libraries become standard in high-value work.",
    "scenario_2041": "Computer vision pre-screens defects, compares prior condition images, and guides measurement; an accountable human remains responsible for conclusions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Visual inspection is multimodal and continuously documented, but direct optical viewing remains important for depth perception and adversarial cases.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From viewing aid to documented multimodal evidence system",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Augments observation and memory rather than replacing expert interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatable inspection, remote consultation, training, and stronger condition records",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Algorithm bias, lighting dependence, data retention, and misleading image enhancement",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Image provenance, privacy, false positives, and evidence chain of custody",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-012",
    "canonical_name": "Movement holder",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-012",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ergonomics, documentation, energy efficiency, and optional image or sensor capture improve, while the underlying physical function remains recognizable.",
    "scenario_2041": "Digitally assisted benches become common in institutional and high-value work, but low-cost manual versions remain globally important.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool persists as part of a mixed human–machine bench; value lies in reliability, tactile control, and compatibility rather than novelty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low-cost control, visibility, organization, and error reduction",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Physical ergonomics and operator skill remain limiting",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-013",
    "canonical_name": "Case cushion",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-013",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ergonomics, documentation, energy efficiency, and optional image or sensor capture improve, while the underlying physical function remains recognizable.",
    "scenario_2041": "Digitally assisted benches become common in institutional and high-value work, but low-cost manual versions remain globally important.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool persists as part of a mixed human–machine bench; value lies in reliability, tactile control, and compatibility rather than novelty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low-cost control, visibility, organization, and error reduction",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Physical ergonomics and operator skill remain limiting",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-014",
    "canonical_name": "Bench vise",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-014",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Supports posture, part control, and repeatable handwork at the watchmaker's station.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ergonomics, documentation, energy efficiency, and optional image or sensor capture improve, while the underlying physical function remains recognizable.",
    "scenario_2041": "Digitally assisted benches become common in institutional and high-value work, but low-cost manual versions remain globally important.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool persists as part of a mixed human–machine bench; value lies in reliability, tactile control, and compatibility rather than novelty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low-cost control, visibility, organization, and error reduction",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Physical ergonomics and operator skill remain limiting",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-015",
    "canonical_name": "Hand rest",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-015",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Constrains and supports tool or work motion on a lathe.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ergonomics, documentation, energy efficiency, and optional image or sensor capture improve, while the underlying physical function remains recognizable.",
    "scenario_2041": "Digitally assisted benches become common in institutional and high-value work, but low-cost manual versions remain globally important.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool persists as part of a mixed human–machine bench; value lies in reliability, tactile control, and compatibility rather than novelty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low-cost control, visibility, organization, and error reduction",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Physical ergonomics and operator skill remain limiting",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-016",
    "canonical_name": "Parts blower",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-016",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ergonomics, documentation, energy efficiency, and optional image or sensor capture improve, while the underlying physical function remains recognizable.",
    "scenario_2041": "Digitally assisted benches become common in institutional and high-value work, but low-cost manual versions remain globally important.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool persists as part of a mixed human–machine bench; value lies in reliability, tactile control, and compatibility rather than novelty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent core tool with selective digital augmentation",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Supports rather than replaces dexterity and judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low-cost control, visibility, organization, and error reduction",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Physical ergonomics and operator skill remain limiting",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-017",
    "canonical_name": "Pegwood",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-017",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ergonomics, documentation, energy efficiency, and optional image or sensor capture improve, while the underlying physical function remains recognizable.",
    "scenario_2041": "Digitally assisted benches become common in institutional and high-value work, but low-cost manual versions remain globally important.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool persists as part of a mixed human–machine bench; value lies in reliability, tactile control, and compatibility rather than novelty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent core tool with selective digital augmentation",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Supports rather than replaces dexterity and judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low-cost control, visibility, organization, and error reduction",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Physical ergonomics and operator skill remain limiting",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-018",
    "canonical_name": "Pith wood",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-018",
    "category": "Bench infrastructure and visual aids",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature bench equipment used in production, service, training, or conservation; adoption ranges from basic manual versions to camera-enabled professional systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ergonomics, documentation, energy efficiency, and optional image or sensor capture improve, while the underlying physical function remains recognizable.",
    "scenario_2041": "Digitally assisted benches become common in institutional and high-value work, but low-cost manual versions remain globally important.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool persists as part of a mixed human–machine bench; value lies in reliability, tactile control, and compatibility rather than novelty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent core tool with selective digital augmentation",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; incremental change through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Supports rather than replaces dexterity and judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mostly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low-cost control, visibility, organization, and error reduction",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Physical ergonomics and operator skill remain limiting",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Dust, lighting, posture, electrostatic discharge, and evidence-preserving handling",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S063;FWT-S065;FWT-S066;FWT-S067"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-019",
    "canonical_name": "Fine-point tweezers",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-019",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Grips and positions small components with controlled force.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-020",
    "canonical_name": "Brass tweezers",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-020",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Grips and positions small components with controlled force.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-021",
    "canonical_name": "Antimagnetic tweezers",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-021",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Grips and positions small components with controlled force.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-022",
    "canonical_name": "Cutting tweezers",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-022",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Grips and positions small components with controlled force.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-023",
    "canonical_name": "Watchmaker's screwdrivers",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-023",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Installs or removes miniature screws while limiting slot and head damage.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-024",
    "canonical_name": "Screw-holding screwdriver",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-024",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Installs or removes miniature screws while limiting slot and head damage.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-025",
    "canonical_name": "Flat-nose pliers",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-025",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Forms, grips, or cuts wire and small components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-026",
    "canonical_name": "Round-nose pliers",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-026",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Forms, grips, or cuts wire and small components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-027",
    "canonical_name": "End-cutting nippers",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-027",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Forms, grips, or cuts wire and small components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-028",
    "canonical_name": "Piercing saw",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-028",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-029",
    "canonical_name": "Needle file",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-029",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Removes metal by hand to establish shape, fit, or finish.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-030",
    "canonical_name": "Escapement file",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-030",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Removes metal by hand to establish shape, fit, or finish.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-031",
    "canonical_name": "Barrette file",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-031",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Removes metal by hand to establish shape, fit, or finish.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-032",
    "canonical_name": "Crossing file",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-032",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Removes metal by hand to establish shape, fit, or finish.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-033",
    "canonical_name": "Screw-head file",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-033",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Removes metal by hand to establish shape, fit, or finish.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-034",
    "canonical_name": "Pivot file",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-034",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Removes metal by hand to establish shape, fit, or finish.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-035",
    "canonical_name": "Graver or burin",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-035",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Cuts or scrapes metal under direct hand control.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-036",
    "canonical_name": "Onglette graver",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-036",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Cuts or scrapes metal under direct hand control.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-037",
    "canonical_name": "Scraper",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-037",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Cuts or scrapes metal under direct hand control.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-038",
    "canonical_name": "Pivot burnisher",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-038",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Compresses and smooths a metal surface rather than cutting it.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-039",
    "canonical_name": "Arkansas stone",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-039",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-040",
    "canonical_name": "Abrasive slip",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-040",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-041",
    "canonical_name": "Pin vise",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-041",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic properties, and traceable tool-control practices improve; the basic forms change little.",
    "scenario_2041": "Some repetitive uses migrate to fixtures or robots, but repair, restoration, prototyping, and final adjustment continue to depend on hand tools.",
    "scenario_2051": "The best hand tools remain economically relevant because they are flexible, repairable, cheap, and capable of judgment-guided work that is hard to formalize.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Durable manual core with better materials and process control",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Directly expresses dexterity and tactile feedback",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-042",
    "canonical_name": "Archimedean hand drill",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-042",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-043",
    "canonical_name": "Bow drill",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-043",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic properties, and traceable tool-control practices improve; the basic forms change little.",
    "scenario_2041": "Some repetitive uses migrate to fixtures or robots, but repair, restoration, prototyping, and final adjustment continue to depend on hand tools.",
    "scenario_2051": "The best hand tools remain economically relevant because they are flexible, repairable, cheap, and capable of judgment-guided work that is hard to formalize.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Durable manual core with better materials and process control",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Directly expresses dexterity and tactile feedback",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-044",
    "canonical_name": "Broach",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-044",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Sizes, tapers, or finishes holes.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-045",
    "canonical_name": "Cutting broach",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-045",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Sizes, tapers, or finishes holes.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-046",
    "canonical_name": "Smoothing broach",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-046",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Sizes, tapers, or finishes holes.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-047",
    "canonical_name": "Taper-pin reamer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-047",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Sizes, tapers, or finishes holes.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic properties, and traceable tool-control practices improve; the basic forms change little.",
    "scenario_2041": "Some repetitive uses migrate to fixtures or robots, but repair, restoration, prototyping, and final adjustment continue to depend on hand tools.",
    "scenario_2051": "The best hand tools remain economically relevant because they are flexible, repairable, cheap, and capable of judgment-guided work that is hard to formalize.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Durable manual core with better materials and process control",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Directly expresses dexterity and tactile feedback",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-048",
    "canonical_name": "Staking hammer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-048",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-049",
    "canonical_name": "Staking set and staking block",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-049",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-050",
    "canonical_name": "Cannon-pinion remover",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-050",
    "category": "General hand tools",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature hand tools remain indispensable for gripping, cutting, filing, burnishing, drilling, broaching, staking, and controlled manipulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic properties, and traceable tool-control practices improve; the basic forms change little.",
    "scenario_2041": "Some repetitive uses migrate to fixtures or robots, but repair, restoration, prototyping, and final adjustment continue to depend on hand tools.",
    "scenario_2051": "The best hand tools remain economically relevant because they are flexible, repairable, cheap, and capable of judgment-guided work that is hard to formalize.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Durable manual core with better materials and process control",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already mature; persists through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Directly expresses dexterity and tactile feedback",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly open and multi-vendor",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Flexibility, low cost, fast setup, and suitability for one-off work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Operator variability, damage risk, and long training curves",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Sharps, eye injury, contamination, toolmarks, and loss of traditional sharpening knowledge",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S009"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-051",
    "canonical_name": "Bow lathe",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-051",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Manual turning remains central to advanced training and one-off repair; compact cameras, digital indicators, and improved drives assist learning and documentation.",
    "scenario_2041": "A smaller but highly skilled cohort uses manual turning for obsolete parts, conservation, and high-craft manufacture; scanned geometry supports setup without dictating every cut.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool survives because it can solve unique problems without industrial programming or minimum volumes; proficiency becomes a premium service capability.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Enduring specialist craft tool, increasingly documented and digitally assisted",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Persistent through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human skill remains the primary control system",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "One-off component manufacture and tactile control",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Long apprenticeship and limited access to expert instruction",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-052",
    "canonical_name": "Watchmaker's turns",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-052",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Manual turning remains central to advanced training and one-off repair; compact cameras, digital indicators, and improved drives assist learning and documentation.",
    "scenario_2041": "A smaller but highly skilled cohort uses manual turning for obsolete parts, conservation, and high-craft manufacture; scanned geometry supports setup without dictating every cut.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool survives because it can solve unique problems without industrial programming or minimum volumes; proficiency becomes a premium service capability.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Enduring specialist craft tool, increasingly documented and digitally assisted",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Persistent through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human skill remains the primary control system",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "One-off component manufacture and tactile control",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Long apprenticeship and limited access to expert instruction",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-053",
    "canonical_name": "Dead-center turns",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-053",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Manual turning remains central to advanced training and one-off repair; compact cameras, digital indicators, and improved drives assist learning and documentation.",
    "scenario_2041": "A smaller but highly skilled cohort uses manual turning for obsolete parts, conservation, and high-craft manufacture; scanned geometry supports setup without dictating every cut.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool survives because it can solve unique problems without industrial programming or minimum volumes; proficiency becomes a premium service capability.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Enduring specialist craft tool, increasingly documented and digitally assisted",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Persistent through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human skill remains the primary control system",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "One-off component manufacture and tactile control",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Long apprenticeship and limited access to expert instruction",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-054",
    "canonical_name": "Pivot lathe",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-054",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Manual turning remains central to advanced training and one-off repair; compact cameras, digital indicators, and improved drives assist learning and documentation.",
    "scenario_2041": "A smaller but highly skilled cohort uses manual turning for obsolete parts, conservation, and high-craft manufacture; scanned geometry supports setup without dictating every cut.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool survives because it can solve unique problems without industrial programming or minimum volumes; proficiency becomes a premium service capability.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Enduring specialist craft tool, increasingly documented and digitally assisted",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Persistent through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human skill remains the primary control system",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "One-off component manufacture and tactile control",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Long apprenticeship and limited access to expert instruction",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-055",
    "canonical_name": "Jacot tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-055",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Manual turning remains central to advanced training and one-off repair; compact cameras, digital indicators, and improved drives assist learning and documentation.",
    "scenario_2041": "A smaller but highly skilled cohort uses manual turning for obsolete parts, conservation, and high-craft manufacture; scanned geometry supports setup without dictating every cut.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool survives because it can solve unique problems without industrial programming or minimum volumes; proficiency becomes a premium service capability.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Enduring specialist craft tool, increasingly documented and digitally assisted",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Persistent through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human skill remains the primary control system",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "One-off component manufacture and tactile control",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Long apprenticeship and limited access to expert instruction",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-056",
    "canonical_name": "Geneva-pattern watchmaker's lathe",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-056",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Manual turning remains central to advanced training and one-off repair; compact cameras, digital indicators, and improved drives assist learning and documentation.",
    "scenario_2041": "A smaller but highly skilled cohort uses manual turning for obsolete parts, conservation, and high-craft manufacture; scanned geometry supports setup without dictating every cut.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool survives because it can solve unique problems without industrial programming or minimum volumes; proficiency becomes a premium service capability.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Enduring specialist craft tool, increasingly documented and digitally assisted",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Persistent through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human skill remains the primary control system",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "One-off component manufacture and tactile control",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Long apprenticeship and limited access to expert instruction",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-057",
    "canonical_name": "WW-pattern watchmaker's lathe",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-057",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Manual turning remains central to advanced training and one-off repair; compact cameras, digital indicators, and improved drives assist learning and documentation.",
    "scenario_2041": "A smaller but highly skilled cohort uses manual turning for obsolete parts, conservation, and high-craft manufacture; scanned geometry supports setup without dictating every cut.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool survives because it can solve unique problems without industrial programming or minimum volumes; proficiency becomes a premium service capability.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Enduring specialist craft tool, increasingly documented and digitally assisted",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Persistent through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human skill remains the primary control system",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "One-off component manufacture and tactile control",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Long apprenticeship and limited access to expert instruction",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-058",
    "canonical_name": "D-bed watchmaker's lathe",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-058",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Manual turning remains central to advanced training and one-off repair; compact cameras, digital indicators, and improved drives assist learning and documentation.",
    "scenario_2041": "A smaller but highly skilled cohort uses manual turning for obsolete parts, conservation, and high-craft manufacture; scanned geometry supports setup without dictating every cut.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool survives because it can solve unique problems without industrial programming or minimum volumes; proficiency becomes a premium service capability.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Enduring specialist craft tool, increasingly documented and digitally assisted",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Persistent through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human skill remains the primary control system",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "One-off component manufacture and tactile control",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Long apprenticeship and limited access to expert instruction",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-059",
    "canonical_name": "Precision instrument lathe",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-059",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Manual turning remains central to advanced training and one-off repair; compact cameras, digital indicators, and improved drives assist learning and documentation.",
    "scenario_2041": "A smaller but highly skilled cohort uses manual turning for obsolete parts, conservation, and high-craft manufacture; scanned geometry supports setup without dictating every cut.",
    "scenario_2051": "The tool survives because it can solve unique problems without industrial programming or minimum volumes; proficiency becomes a premium service capability.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Enduring specialist craft tool, increasingly documented and digitally assisted",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Persistent through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human skill remains the primary control system",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "One-off component manufacture and tactile control",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Long apprenticeship and limited access to expert instruction",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-060",
    "canonical_name": "Lathe headstock",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-060",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Bifurcation between digitally augmented craft and autonomous production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Preserves one-off manufacture and judgment; production skill migrates toward process engineering",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-061",
    "canonical_name": "Lathe tailstock",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-061",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Bifurcation between digitally augmented craft and autonomous production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Preserves one-off manufacture and judgment; production skill migrates toward process engineering",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-062",
    "canonical_name": "Slide rest",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-062",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Constrains and supports tool or work motion on a lathe.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Bifurcation between digitally augmented craft and autonomous production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Preserves one-off manufacture and judgment; production skill migrates toward process engineering",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-063",
    "canonical_name": "Compound slide",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-063",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Constrains and supports tool or work motion on a lathe.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Bifurcation between digitally augmented craft and autonomous production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Preserves one-off manufacture and judgment; production skill migrates toward process engineering",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-064",
    "canonical_name": "Cross slide",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-064",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Constrains and supports tool or work motion on a lathe.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Bifurcation between digitally augmented craft and autonomous production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Preserves one-off manufacture and judgment; production skill migrates toward process engineering",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-065",
    "canonical_name": "Graver rest",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-065",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Cuts or scrapes metal under direct hand control.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-066",
    "canonical_name": "Wire chuck",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-066",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Holds or drives miniature work with controlled concentricity.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-067",
    "canonical_name": "Split collet",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-067",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Holds or drives miniature work with controlled concentricity.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-068",
    "canonical_name": "Step chuck",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-068",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Holds or drives miniature work with controlled concentricity.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-069",
    "canonical_name": "Wax chuck",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-069",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Holds or drives miniature work with controlled concentricity.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-070",
    "canonical_name": "Cement chuck",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-070",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Holds or drives miniature work with controlled concentricity.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-071",
    "canonical_name": "Faceplate",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-071",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Holds or drives miniature work with controlled concentricity.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-072",
    "canonical_name": "Lathe carrier or dog",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-072",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-073",
    "canonical_name": "Mandrel",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-073",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Holds or drives miniature work with controlled concentricity.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-074",
    "canonical_name": "Expanding arbor",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-074",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Holds or drives miniature work with controlled concentricity.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-075",
    "canonical_name": "Pivot-polishing runner",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-075",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Bifurcation between digitally augmented craft and autonomous production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Preserves one-off manufacture and judgment; production skill migrates toward process engineering",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-076",
    "canonical_name": "Milling attachment for a watchmaker's lathe",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-076",
    "category": "Lathes, turns, and workholding",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual turns and watchmaker lathes coexist with precision instrument lathes, attachments, collets, arbors, and factory CNC systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital readouts, compact metrology, improved workholding, safer drives, and training aids make manual turning more teachable without automating it away.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent workshops combine manual lathes with scanned geometry and small CNC or outsourced micro-machining; factories use increasingly autonomous cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual turning remains a defining repair and high-craft capability, while industrial turning is deeply integrated with in-process measurement and digital records.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Bifurcation between digitally augmented craft and autonomous production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Preserves one-off manufacture and judgment; production skill migrates toward process engineering",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Manual ecosystem relatively open; industrial controls more proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Capability to create missing parts, control concentricity, and adapt to unique work",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Training, workholding, tool geometry, thermal stability, and capital",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Entanglement, airborne particles, undocumented remanufacture, and declining manual-lathe instruction",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-077",
    "canonical_name": "Wheel-cutting engine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-077",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-078",
    "canonical_name": "Fusee-cutting engine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-078",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-079",
    "canonical_name": "Rounding-up tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-079",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-080",
    "canonical_name": "Wheel-tooth topping tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-080",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-081",
    "canonical_name": "Dividing plate",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-081",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-082",
    "canonical_name": "Index plate",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-082",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-083",
    "canonical_name": "Sector or dividing arm",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-083",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-084",
    "canonical_name": "Fly cutter",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-084",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-085",
    "canonical_name": "Form-relieved wheel cutter",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-085",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-086",
    "canonical_name": "Pinion cutter",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-086",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-087",
    "canonical_name": "Pinion-leaf cutter",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-087",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-088",
    "canonical_name": "Gear hob",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-088",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-089",
    "canonical_name": "Wheel-blank punch",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-089",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-090",
    "canonical_name": "Wheel crossing-out jig",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-090",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-091",
    "canonical_name": "Wheel-crossing saw guide",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-091",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-092",
    "canonical_name": "Pinion headstock",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-092",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Constrains and supports tool or work motion on a lathe.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-093",
    "canonical_name": "Depthing tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-093",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Establishes or checks the center distance and engagement of wheels and pinions.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-094",
    "canonical_name": "Depthing compass",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-094",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Establishes or checks the center distance and engagement of wheels and pinions.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-095",
    "canonical_name": "Meshing gauge",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-095",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Establishes or checks the center distance and engagement of wheels and pinions.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-096",
    "canonical_name": "Tooth-profile projector",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-096",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Removes metal by hand to establish shape, fit, or finish.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatable inspection, remote consultation, training, and stronger condition records",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Algorithm bias, lighting dependence, data retention, and misleading image enhancement",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Image provenance, privacy, false positives, and evidence chain of custody",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-097",
    "canonical_name": "Wheel-riveting stake",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-097",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-098",
    "canonical_name": "Wheel-collet riveting tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-098",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Holds or drives miniature work with controlled concentricity.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-099",
    "canonical_name": "Wheel-straightening tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-099",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-100",
    "canonical_name": "Pinion-truing tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-100",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-101",
    "canonical_name": "Arbor-riveting tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-101",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Holds or drives miniature work with controlled concentricity.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-102",
    "canonical_name": "Wheel-broaching plate",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-102",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Sizes, tapers, or finishes holes.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-103",
    "canonical_name": "Cutter-grinding fixture",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-103",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-104",
    "canonical_name": "Gear-inspection microscope",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-104",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Enlarges or improves visibility so surfaces, alignment, contamination, and defects can be judged.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Higher-resolution cameras, depth measurement, image annotation, and searchable reference libraries become standard in high-value work.",
    "scenario_2041": "Computer vision pre-screens defects, compares prior condition images, and guides measurement; an accountable human remains responsible for conclusions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Visual inspection is multimodal and continuously documented, but direct optical viewing remains important for depth perception and adversarial cases.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From viewing aid to documented multimodal evidence system",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Augments observation and memory rather than replacing expert interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatable inspection, remote consultation, training, and stronger condition records",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Algorithm bias, lighting dependence, data retention, and misleading image enhancement",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Image provenance, privacy, false positives, and evidence chain of custody",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-105",
    "canonical_name": "Master wheel or gear gauge",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-105",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Better optical metrology, cutter modeling, compact CNC, and digital setup records improve short-run and replacement-part production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop micro-gear cells compensate tool wear and verify profile, runout, and meshing before release.",
    "scenario_2051": "Factories use highly integrated gear-production cells, while restoration uses hybrid workflows that scan, model, cut, finish, and document one-off replacements.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Digitally measured production with continued manual fitting",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive setup but retains depthing, finishing, and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Profile accuracy, repeatability, lower scrap, and viable low-volume remanufacture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cutter availability, burr control, material treatment, and validation of one-off parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-106",
    "canonical_name": "CNC gear-cutting center",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-106",
    "category": "Wheel, pinion, and gear production",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual and semi-automatic wheel-cutting, depthing, riveting, truing, and inspection tools coexist with CNC gear production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tooling open, cutters/software/controls may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production; selected restoration use",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Toolmark disclosure, functional equivalence versus historical authenticity, and guarding",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S055;FWT-S056;FWT-S061;FWT-S046"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-107",
    "canonical_name": "Escapement demonstration model",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-107",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sets, or evaluates the parts that meter energy to the oscillator.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-108",
    "canonical_name": "Verge-making jig",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-108",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sets, or evaluates the parts that meter energy to the oscillator.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-109",
    "canonical_name": "Verge gauge",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-109",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sets, or evaluates the parts that meter energy to the oscillator.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-110",
    "canonical_name": "Crown-wheel cutter",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-110",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-111",
    "canonical_name": "Cylinder-escapement broach",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-111",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Sizes, tapers, or finishes holes.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-112",
    "canonical_name": "Cylinder-escapement gauge",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-112",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sets, or evaluates the parts that meter energy to the oscillator.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-113",
    "canonical_name": "Lever-escapement pallet jig",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-113",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sets, or evaluates the parts that meter energy to the oscillator.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-114",
    "canonical_name": "Pallet warmer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-114",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sets, or evaluates the parts that meter energy to the oscillator.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-115",
    "canonical_name": "Pallet-stone setting tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-115",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sets, or evaluates the parts that meter energy to the oscillator.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-116",
    "canonical_name": "Pallet-fork alignment gauge",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-116",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sets, or evaluates the parts that meter energy to the oscillator.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-117",
    "canonical_name": "Banking-pin tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-117",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sets, or evaluates the parts that meter energy to the oscillator.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-118",
    "canonical_name": "Roller-table remover",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-118",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sets, or evaluates the parts that meter energy to the oscillator.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-119",
    "canonical_name": "Roller-table staking tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-119",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sets, or evaluates the parts that meter energy to the oscillator.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-120",
    "canonical_name": "Impulse-jewel setting tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-120",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sets, or evaluates the parts that meter energy to the oscillator.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-121",
    "canonical_name": "Escape-wheel truing tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-121",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-122",
    "canonical_name": "Balance tack",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-122",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Forms, centers, balances, or characterizes the oscillator or energy-storage spring.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-123",
    "canonical_name": "Balance-wheel truing calipers",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-123",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-124",
    "canonical_name": "Static balance-poising tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-124",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Forms, centers, balances, or characterizes the oscillator or energy-storage spring.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-125",
    "canonical_name": "Dynamic poising machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-125",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Forms, centers, balances, or characterizes the oscillator or energy-storage spring.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-126",
    "canonical_name": "Balance-screw tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-126",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Forms, centers, balances, or characterizes the oscillator or energy-storage spring.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-127",
    "canonical_name": "Timing-washer tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-127",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Measures rate, beat, amplitude, frequency, or stability against a reference.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-128",
    "canonical_name": "Hairspring vibrating tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-128",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Forms, centers, balances, or characterizes the oscillator or energy-storage spring.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-129",
    "canonical_name": "Hairspring counting and vibrating machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-129",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Forms, centers, balances, or characterizes the oscillator or energy-storage spring.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-130",
    "canonical_name": "Hairspring collet tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-130",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Holds or drives miniature work with controlled concentricity.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-131",
    "canonical_name": "Hairspring studding tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-131",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Forms, centers, balances, or characterizes the oscillator or energy-storage spring.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-132",
    "canonical_name": "Hairspring-truing tweezers",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-132",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Grips and positions small components with controlled force.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-133",
    "canonical_name": "Hairspring forming pins",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-133",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Forms, centers, balances, or characterizes the oscillator or energy-storage spring.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-134",
    "canonical_name": "Overcoil-forming tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-134",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Forms, centers, balances, or characterizes the oscillator or energy-storage spring.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-135",
    "canonical_name": "Mainspring winder",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-135",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Forms, centers, balances, or characterizes the oscillator or energy-storage spring.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-136",
    "canonical_name": "Mainspring-barrel closer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-136",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Forms, centers, balances, or characterizes the oscillator or energy-storage spring.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-137",
    "canonical_name": "Mainspring-strength gauge",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-137",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Forms, centers, balances, or characterizes the oscillator or energy-storage spring.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-138",
    "canonical_name": "Balance-spring torque tester",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-138",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Forms, centers, balances, or characterizes the oscillator or energy-storage spring.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Simulation, optical measurement, automated poising, and trace analysis improve; specialist hand tools remain essential for adjustment and restoration.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms, silicon parts, and model-based adjustment reduce some conventional operations while creating new diagnostic and replacement dependencies.",
    "scenario_2051": "Traditional balance-spring craft survives in restoration and high horology; industrial systems increasingly tune oscillator assemblies through measured, model-assisted workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-assisted precision with enduring specialist craft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from repeated trial-and-error toward diagnosis, design intent, and irreversible correction",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher reproducibility, faster fault isolation, and new oscillator architectures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Tiny tolerances, proprietary parts, difficult repair, and limited training capacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-139",
    "canonical_name": "Escapement analyzer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-139",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sets, or evaluates the parts that meter energy to the oscillator.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic position sequences, environmental metadata, waveform classification, and networked result storage expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Models compare a watch against its own history and population-level patterns, flagging likely faults without claiming a complete diagnosis.",
    "scenario_2051": "Timing data become longitudinal service evidence; expert interpretation remains necessary for unusual escapements, noise, and intentional design choices.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From instantaneous reading to longitudinal, model-assisted diagnosis",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from manual reading toward causal diagnosis and adjustment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster triage, richer fault evidence, and reproducible certification",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Lift-angle assumptions, acoustic noise, nonstandard escapements, and proprietary algorithms",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tacit skill, overreliance on simulation, component brittleness, and undisclosed replacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-140",
    "canonical_name": "Escapement simulation software",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-140",
    "category": "Escapements, balances, and springs",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sets, or evaluates the parts that meter energy to the oscillator.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "The most judgment-intensive mechanical-watch work combines manual tools, specialized gauges, dynamic instruments, and simulation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Model-based definitions, tolerance simulation, AI-assisted toolpath suggestions, and version-controlled archives expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Design models connect to process twins, metrology, service limits, and qualified replacement workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "The authoritative model includes geometry, material, process, inspection, and lifecycle constraints; human approval remains essential for safety and heritage-sensitive changes.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From geometry file to governed lifecycle model",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves effort toward constraint definition, validation, and responsibility",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; traditional tools open, advanced components and software often closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster iteration, fewer translation errors, and viable short-run components",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model fidelity, intellectual property, software decay, and vendor lock-in",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Unauthorized copying, hidden model changes, and preservation of source data",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S009;FWT-S011;FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S051;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-141",
    "canonical_name": "Jewel-drilling bow",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-141",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sizes, sets, or inspects jewel bearings and their oil-retaining geometry.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-142",
    "canonical_name": "Diamond-point jewel drill",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-142",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sizes, sets, or inspects jewel bearings and their oil-retaining geometry.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-143",
    "canonical_name": "Jewel lathe",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-143",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-144",
    "canonical_name": "Jewel-grinding lap",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-144",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sizes, sets, or inspects jewel bearings and their oil-retaining geometry.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-145",
    "canonical_name": "Jewel-polishing lap",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-145",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sizes, sets, or inspects jewel bearings and their oil-retaining geometry.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-146",
    "canonical_name": "Jewel chuck",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-146",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Holds or drives miniature work with controlled concentricity.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent physical interface with improved materials, repeatability, and model-specific geometry",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Converts operator intent into stable geometry; setup judgment remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-147",
    "canonical_name": "Jewel-setting stake",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-147",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sizes, sets, or inspects jewel bearings and their oil-retaining geometry.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-148",
    "canonical_name": "Rubbed-in jewel tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-148",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sizes, sets, or inspects jewel bearings and their oil-retaining geometry.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-149",
    "canonical_name": "Friction jeweling press",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-149",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sizes, sets, or inspects jewel bearings and their oil-retaining geometry.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-150",
    "canonical_name": "Seitz-pattern jeweling tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-150",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sizes, sets, or inspects jewel bearings and their oil-retaining geometry.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-151",
    "canonical_name": "Jewel reamer set",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-151",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Sizes, tapers, or finishes holes.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-152",
    "canonical_name": "Jewel pusher",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-152",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sizes, sets, or inspects jewel bearings and their oil-retaining geometry.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-153",
    "canonical_name": "Jewel-setting punch",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-153",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sizes, sets, or inspects jewel bearings and their oil-retaining geometry.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-154",
    "canonical_name": "Jewel-height micrometer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-154",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sizes, sets, or inspects jewel bearings and their oil-retaining geometry.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-155",
    "canonical_name": "Endshake jewel gauge",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-155",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sizes, sets, or inspects jewel bearings and their oil-retaining geometry.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-156",
    "canonical_name": "Chaton-setting tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-156",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, sizes, sets, or inspects jewel bearings and their oil-retaining geometry.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-157",
    "canonical_name": "Oil-sink cutter",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-157",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Force and depth sensing, optical centering, and better dimensional records reduce avoidable jewel damage in professional workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production jeweling becomes more automated and closed-loop; restoration remains manual because old plates, settings, and replacement dimensions vary.",
    "scenario_2051": "Industrial bearing placement is highly measured, while hand jeweling survives as a conservation and independent-service specialty.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated in production, judgment-intensive in restoration",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual skill concentrates in irregular, historic, and low-volume cases",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower breakage, better endshake control, and traceable placement",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part variability, brittle materials, access to dimensions, and small volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Jewel fracture, plate damage, undocumented enlargement, and loss of original settings",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-158",
    "canonical_name": "Jewel-inspection microscope",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-158",
    "category": "Jeweling and bearing work",
    "primary_function": "Enlarges or improves visibility so surfaces, alignment, contamination, and defects can be judged.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manual jeweling tools coexist with friction presses, micrometers, microscopes, and industrial bearing-component production.",
    "scenario_2031": "Higher-resolution cameras, depth measurement, image annotation, and searchable reference libraries become standard in high-value work.",
    "scenario_2041": "Computer vision pre-screens defects, compares prior condition images, and guides measurement; an accountable human remains responsible for conclusions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Visual inspection is multimodal and continuously documented, but direct optical viewing remains important for depth perception and adversarial cases.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From viewing aid to documented multimodal evidence system",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Augments observation and memory rather than replacing expert interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; manual tools open, production cells proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatable inspection, remote consultation, training, and stronger condition records",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Algorithm bias, lighting dependence, data retention, and misleading image enhancement",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Image provenance, privacy, false positives, and evidence chain of custody",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S065"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-159",
    "canonical_name": "Case-opener knife",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-159",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-160",
    "canonical_name": "Jaxa-pattern case wrench",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-160",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-161",
    "canonical_name": "Three-point case wrench",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-161",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-162",
    "canonical_name": "Friction-ball case opener",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-162",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-163",
    "canonical_name": "Screw-back case die",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-163",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-164",
    "canonical_name": "Snap-back case closer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-164",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-165",
    "canonical_name": "Case press",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-165",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-166",
    "canonical_name": "Bezel lifter",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-166",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-167",
    "canonical_name": "Crystal lift",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-167",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-168",
    "canonical_name": "Crystal press",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-168",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-169",
    "canonical_name": "Crystal die set",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-169",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-170",
    "canonical_name": "Crystal-cutting lathe",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-170",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-171",
    "canonical_name": "Glass-scoring tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-171",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-172",
    "canonical_name": "Acrylic-crystal polishing tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-172",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-173",
    "canonical_name": "Gasket pick",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-173",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-174",
    "canonical_name": "Gasket-cutting punch",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-174",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-175",
    "canonical_name": "Crown-and-tube tool",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-175",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-176",
    "canonical_name": "Stem-cutting gauge",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-176",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-177",
    "canonical_name": "Case-tube reamer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-177",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Sizes, tapers, or finishes holes.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "More fixtures become torque-controlled, sensor-assisted, and automatically documented; testing instruments increasingly export structured results.",
    "scenario_2041": "High-value service combines component identification, controlled force, leak localization, and product-record updates in one workflow.",
    "scenario_2051": "Manual fixtures remain, but professional systems increasingly prevent unsafe operations and preserve a traceable test history.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From force application toward controlled, measured, and documented intervention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces avoidable damage but retains human setup and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure safety, crystal breakage, seal chemistry, false assurance, and test-record integrity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-178",
    "canonical_name": "Dry pressure tester",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-178",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Tests enclosure integrity by controlled pressure, vacuum, moisture, or leak sensing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-179",
    "canonical_name": "Wet pressure tester",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-179",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Tests enclosure integrity by controlled pressure, vacuum, moisture, or leak sensing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-180",
    "canonical_name": "Vacuum tester",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-180",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Tests enclosure integrity by controlled pressure, vacuum, moisture, or leak sensing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic cycles, model-linked limits, barometric compensation, and exported test reports become common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Leak localization and controlled-force casing data join pressure results, allowing service centers to distinguish seal failure from case deformation.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-value watches carry longitudinal sealing records; a passed test remains time-limited rather than a permanent guarantee.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated, model-aware, longitudinal sealing verification",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Interprets failure modes and determines safe intervention",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure hazards, false assurance, uncalibrated chambers, and overclaiming future water resistance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-181",
    "canonical_name": "Condensation tester",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-181",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Tests enclosure integrity by controlled pressure, vacuum, moisture, or leak sensing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic cycles, model-linked limits, barometric compensation, and exported test reports become common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Leak localization and controlled-force casing data join pressure results, allowing service centers to distinguish seal failure from case deformation.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-value watches carry longitudinal sealing records; a passed test remains time-limited rather than a permanent guarantee.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated, model-aware, longitudinal sealing verification",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Interprets failure modes and determines safe intervention",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure hazards, false assurance, uncalibrated chambers, and overclaiming future water resistance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-182",
    "canonical_name": "Electronic leak detector",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-182",
    "category": "Cases, crystals, crowns, and water resistance",
    "primary_function": "Tests enclosure integrity by controlled pressure, vacuum, moisture, or leak sensing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established case-opening, pressing, sealing, and verification equipment; quality varies sharply between household tools, independent workshops, and factory service centers.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic cycles, model-linked limits, barometric compensation, and exported test reports become common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Leak localization and controlled-force casing data join pressure results, allowing service centers to distinguish seal failure from case deformation.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-value watches carry longitudinal sealing records; a passed test remains time-limited rather than a permanent guarantee.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated, model-aware, longitudinal sealing verification",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 for professional adoption; manual tools persist",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Interprets failure modes and determines safe intervention",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; fixtures open, software and dies often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage rates and more defensible water-resistance claims",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model-specific geometry, seals, parts access, and liability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Pressure hazards, false assurance, uncalibrated chambers, and overclaiming future water resistance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S063;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-183",
    "canonical_name": "Dial-maker's lathe",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-183",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital pattern generation, ultrashort-pulse lasers, machine vision, and better process simulation expand without eliminating hand engraving, enamel, guilloché, or finishing.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production decoration becomes more programmable and measurable; authenticated handwork commands a clearer premium precisely because it is not fully automated.",
    "scenario_2051": "The market bifurcates between repeatable industrial surface engineering and scarce human-authored craft, with hybrid workflows between them.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Polarization between programmable decoration and demonstrable handcraft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Automation handles repetition; humans retain composition, irreversible finishing, and heritage judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-184",
    "canonical_name": "Rose engine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-184",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Restored historic engines and new precision reproductions coexist with CNC and laser-generated patterns; workshops document process more explicitly.",
    "scenario_2041": "Verified engine-turning and hand-guided work carry a stronger provenance premium as automated textures become ubiquitous.",
    "scenario_2051": "The machines survive as productive cultural assets, not merely museum objects, but expertise remains scarce.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Living heritage tool with rising authenticity premium",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human rhythm, setup, and intervention are integral to the result",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Distinctive texture, cultural continuity, and demonstrable process authorship",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Maintenance, tooling, training, and misleading marketing of automated patterns",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-185",
    "canonical_name": "Straight-line engine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-185",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Restored historic engines and new precision reproductions coexist with CNC and laser-generated patterns; workshops document process more explicitly.",
    "scenario_2041": "Verified engine-turning and hand-guided work carry a stronger provenance premium as automated textures become ubiquitous.",
    "scenario_2051": "The machines survive as productive cultural assets, not merely museum objects, but expertise remains scarce.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Living heritage tool with rising authenticity premium",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human rhythm, setup, and intervention are integral to the result",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Distinctive texture, cultural continuity, and demonstrable process authorship",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Maintenance, tooling, training, and misleading marketing of automated patterns",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-186",
    "canonical_name": "Geometric chuck",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-186",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Holds or drives miniature work with controlled concentricity.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Restored historic engines and new precision reproductions coexist with CNC and laser-generated patterns; workshops document process more explicitly.",
    "scenario_2041": "Verified engine-turning and hand-guided work carry a stronger provenance premium as automated textures become ubiquitous.",
    "scenario_2051": "The machines survive as productive cultural assets, not merely museum objects, but expertise remains scarce.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Living heritage tool with rising authenticity premium",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human rhythm, setup, and intervention are integral to the result",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Distinctive texture, cultural continuity, and demonstrable process authorship",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Maintenance, tooling, training, and misleading marketing of automated patterns",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-187",
    "canonical_name": "Guilloché cutter",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-187",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Restored historic engines and new precision reproductions coexist with CNC and laser-generated patterns; workshops document process more explicitly.",
    "scenario_2041": "Verified engine-turning and hand-guided work carry a stronger provenance premium as automated textures become ubiquitous.",
    "scenario_2051": "The machines survive as productive cultural assets, not merely museum objects, but expertise remains scarce.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Living heritage tool with rising authenticity premium",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human rhythm, setup, and intervention are integral to the result",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Distinctive texture, cultural continuity, and demonstrable process authorship",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Maintenance, tooling, training, and misleading marketing of automated patterns",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-188",
    "canonical_name": "Ornamental-turning slide",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-188",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Constrains and supports tool or work motion on a lathe.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Restored historic engines and new precision reproductions coexist with CNC and laser-generated patterns; workshops document process more explicitly.",
    "scenario_2041": "Verified engine-turning and hand-guided work carry a stronger provenance premium as automated textures become ubiquitous.",
    "scenario_2051": "The machines survive as productive cultural assets, not merely museum objects, but expertise remains scarce.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Living heritage tool with rising authenticity premium",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human rhythm, setup, and intervention are integral to the result",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Distinctive texture, cultural continuity, and demonstrable process authorship",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Maintenance, tooling, training, and misleading marketing of automated patterns",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-189",
    "canonical_name": "Pantograph engraving machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-189",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital pattern generation, ultrashort-pulse lasers, machine vision, and better process simulation expand without eliminating hand engraving, enamel, guilloché, or finishing.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production decoration becomes more programmable and measurable; authenticated handwork commands a clearer premium precisely because it is not fully automated.",
    "scenario_2051": "The market bifurcates between repeatable industrial surface engineering and scarce human-authored craft, with hybrid workflows between them.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Polarization between programmable decoration and demonstrable handcraft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Automation handles repetition; humans retain composition, irreversible finishing, and heritage judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-190",
    "canonical_name": "Hand-engraving vise",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-190",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital pattern generation, ultrashort-pulse lasers, machine vision, and better process simulation expand without eliminating hand engraving, enamel, guilloché, or finishing.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production decoration becomes more programmable and measurable; authenticated handwork commands a clearer premium precisely because it is not fully automated.",
    "scenario_2051": "The market bifurcates between repeatable industrial surface engineering and scarce human-authored craft, with hybrid workflows between them.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Polarization between programmable decoration and demonstrable handcraft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Automation handles repetition; humans retain composition, irreversible finishing, and heritage judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-191",
    "canonical_name": "Enamel muffle kiln",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-191",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital pattern generation, ultrashort-pulse lasers, machine vision, and better process simulation expand without eliminating hand engraving, enamel, guilloché, or finishing.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production decoration becomes more programmable and measurable; authenticated handwork commands a clearer premium precisely because it is not fully automated.",
    "scenario_2051": "The market bifurcates between repeatable industrial surface engineering and scarce human-authored craft, with hybrid workflows between them.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Polarization between programmable decoration and demonstrable handcraft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Automation handles repetition; humans retain composition, irreversible finishing, and heritage judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-192",
    "canonical_name": "Enamel-grinding stone",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-192",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-193",
    "canonical_name": "Dial-blank press",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-193",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-194",
    "canonical_name": "Dial-indexing plate",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-194",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Generates, finishes, or verifies toothed components and their spacing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital pattern generation, ultrashort-pulse lasers, machine vision, and better process simulation expand without eliminating hand engraving, enamel, guilloché, or finishing.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production decoration becomes more programmable and measurable; authenticated handwork commands a clearer premium precisely because it is not fully automated.",
    "scenario_2051": "The market bifurcates between repeatable industrial surface engineering and scarce human-authored craft, with hybrid workflows between them.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Polarization between programmable decoration and demonstrable handcraft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Automation handles repetition; humans retain composition, irreversible finishing, and heritage judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-195",
    "canonical_name": "Dial transfer-printing press",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-195",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-196",
    "canonical_name": "Pad-printing machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-196",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital pattern generation, ultrashort-pulse lasers, machine vision, and better process simulation expand without eliminating hand engraving, enamel, guilloché, or finishing.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production decoration becomes more programmable and measurable; authenticated handwork commands a clearer premium precisely because it is not fully automated.",
    "scenario_2051": "The market bifurcates between repeatable industrial surface engineering and scarce human-authored craft, with hybrid workflows between them.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Polarization between programmable decoration and demonstrable handcraft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Automation handles repetition; humans retain composition, irreversible finishing, and heritage judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-197",
    "canonical_name": "Dial-foot soldering jig",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-197",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital pattern generation, ultrashort-pulse lasers, machine vision, and better process simulation expand without eliminating hand engraving, enamel, guilloché, or finishing.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production decoration becomes more programmable and measurable; authenticated handwork commands a clearer premium precisely because it is not fully automated.",
    "scenario_2051": "The market bifurcates between repeatable industrial surface engineering and scarce human-authored craft, with hybrid workflows between them.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Polarization between programmable decoration and demonstrable handcraft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Automation handles repetition; humans retain composition, irreversible finishing, and heritage judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-198",
    "canonical_name": "Dial-rivet stake",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-198",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital pattern generation, ultrashort-pulse lasers, machine vision, and better process simulation expand without eliminating hand engraving, enamel, guilloché, or finishing.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production decoration becomes more programmable and measurable; authenticated handwork commands a clearer premium precisely because it is not fully automated.",
    "scenario_2051": "The market bifurcates between repeatable industrial surface engineering and scarce human-authored craft, with hybrid workflows between them.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Polarization between programmable decoration and demonstrable handcraft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Automation handles repetition; humans retain composition, irreversible finishing, and heritage judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-199",
    "canonical_name": "Hand-broaching plate",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-199",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Sizes, tapers, or finishes holes.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-200",
    "canonical_name": "Hand-setting press",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-200",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-201",
    "canonical_name": "Hand levers",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-201",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital pattern generation, ultrashort-pulse lasers, machine vision, and better process simulation expand without eliminating hand engraving, enamel, guilloché, or finishing.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production decoration becomes more programmable and measurable; authenticated handwork commands a clearer premium precisely because it is not fully automated.",
    "scenario_2051": "The market bifurcates between repeatable industrial surface engineering and scarce human-authored craft, with hybrid workflows between them.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Polarization between programmable decoration and demonstrable handcraft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Automation handles repetition; humans retain composition, irreversible finishing, and heritage judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-202",
    "canonical_name": "Presto-style hand remover",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-202",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Constrains and supports tool or work motion on a lathe.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital pattern generation, ultrashort-pulse lasers, machine vision, and better process simulation expand without eliminating hand engraving, enamel, guilloché, or finishing.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production decoration becomes more programmable and measurable; authenticated handwork commands a clearer premium precisely because it is not fully automated.",
    "scenario_2051": "The market bifurcates between repeatable industrial surface engineering and scarce human-authored craft, with hybrid workflows between them.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Polarization between programmable decoration and demonstrable handcraft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Automation handles repetition; humans retain composition, irreversible finishing, and heritage judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-203",
    "canonical_name": "Bluing pan",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-203",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital pattern generation, ultrashort-pulse lasers, machine vision, and better process simulation expand without eliminating hand engraving, enamel, guilloché, or finishing.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production decoration becomes more programmable and measurable; authenticated handwork commands a clearer premium precisely because it is not fully automated.",
    "scenario_2051": "The market bifurcates between repeatable industrial surface engineering and scarce human-authored craft, with hybrid workflows between them.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Polarization between programmable decoration and demonstrable handcraft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Automation handles repetition; humans retain composition, irreversible finishing, and heritage judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-204",
    "canonical_name": "Electroplating bath",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-204",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-205",
    "canonical_name": "Lacquer spray booth",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-205",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Digital pattern generation, ultrashort-pulse lasers, machine vision, and better process simulation expand without eliminating hand engraving, enamel, guilloché, or finishing.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production decoration becomes more programmable and measurable; authenticated handwork commands a clearer premium precisely because it is not fully automated.",
    "scenario_2051": "The market bifurcates between repeatable industrial surface engineering and scarce human-authored craft, with hybrid workflows between them.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Polarization between programmable decoration and demonstrable handcraft",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Automation handles repetition; humans retain composition, irreversible finishing, and heritage judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "New textures, reproducibility, customization, and lower setup costs for short runs",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Authenticity claims, surface damage, artistic sameness, and high capital cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Fumes, laser safety, plating waste, cultural attribution, and disclosure of machine versus hand work",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-206",
    "canonical_name": "Laser-engraving station",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-206",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ultrashort-pulse sources, beam monitoring, vision registration, and parameter libraries broaden precision cutting, texturing, welding, and ablation.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop laser cells inspect the result and adapt paths or energy within validated limits.",
    "scenario_2051": "Lasers are normal tools for difficult materials and localized repair, but process disclosure and surface interpretation become essential for collectors and conservators.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Toward ultrafast, monitored, adaptive material processing",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Humans define acceptable intervention and finish; machines control repeatable energy delivery",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Localized processing, low heat input, complex textures, and repair of valuable components",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, parameter qualification, optical access, reflectivity, and operator competence",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Laser safety, fumes, hidden rework, and irreversible alteration",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-207",
    "canonical_name": "Dial-inspection light box",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-207",
    "category": "Dials, hands, engraving, and decorative work",
    "primary_function": "Enlarges or improves visibility so surfaces, alignment, contamination, and defects can be judged.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "A hybrid field combining centuries-old hand processes with presses, printing, electroplating, CNC, and laser systems.",
    "scenario_2031": "Higher-resolution cameras, depth measurement, image annotation, and searchable reference libraries become standard in high-value work.",
    "scenario_2041": "Computer vision pre-screens defects, compares prior condition images, and guides measurement; an accountable human remains responsible for conclusions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Visual inspection is multimodal and continuously documented, but direct optical viewing remains important for depth perception and adversarial cases.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From viewing aid to documented multimodal evidence system",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Augments observation and memory rather than replacing expert interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; hand tools open, industrial platforms proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production and restoration",
    "work_contexts": "production;restoration",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatable inspection, remote consultation, training, and stronger condition records",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Algorithm bias, lighting dependence, data retention, and misleading image enhancement",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Image provenance, privacy, false positives, and evidence chain of custody",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-208",
    "canonical_name": "Watch-cleaning jar",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-208",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Removes particles, degraded lubricants, and process residues before assembly or service.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Closed-loop solvent management, lower-emission chemistries, dose control, machine logging, and optical verification expand in professional facilities.",
    "scenario_2041": "Sensor-rich cleaning and lubrication cells reproduce validated recipes and flag contamination or abnormal consumption before final assembly.",
    "scenario_2051": "Routine production steps are highly automated, while restoration retains manual recipes for fragile or historically significant components.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "More reproducible, lower-emission, and evidence-producing process control",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves skill from repetitive handling toward recipe selection and exception management",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Consistency, lower contamination, reduced waste, and better auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material compatibility, chemistry regulation, and small-batch economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent exposure, fire, waste disposal, cross-contamination, and undocumented treatment",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-209",
    "canonical_name": "Parts basket",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-209",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Closed-loop solvent management, lower-emission chemistries, dose control, machine logging, and optical verification expand in professional facilities.",
    "scenario_2041": "Sensor-rich cleaning and lubrication cells reproduce validated recipes and flag contamination or abnormal consumption before final assembly.",
    "scenario_2051": "Routine production steps are highly automated, while restoration retains manual recipes for fragile or historically significant components.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "More reproducible, lower-emission, and evidence-producing process control",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves skill from repetitive handling toward recipe selection and exception management",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Consistency, lower contamination, reduced waste, and better auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material compatibility, chemistry regulation, and small-batch economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent exposure, fire, waste disposal, cross-contamination, and undocumented treatment",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-210",
    "canonical_name": "Hand-cranked cleaning machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-210",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Sealed fluid paths, recipe control, solvent recovery, filtration, and automated logs expand as health and environmental controls tighten.",
    "scenario_2041": "Professional cleaning systems identify loads, monitor bath condition, and prevent incompatible recipes; restoration retains manually controlled exceptions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Cleaning is a validated and traceable process rather than an undocumented bench habit.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed, monitored, lower-emission process system",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves skill from repetitive handling toward recipe selection and exception management",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Consistency, lower contamination, reduced waste, and better auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material compatibility, chemistry regulation, and small-batch economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent toxicity, fire, waste, seals, cross-contamination, and preservation-sensitive surfaces",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-211",
    "canonical_name": "Motorized multi-jar cleaning machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-211",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Removes particles, degraded lubricants, and process residues before assembly or service.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Sealed fluid paths, recipe control, solvent recovery, filtration, and automated logs expand as health and environmental controls tighten.",
    "scenario_2041": "Professional cleaning systems identify loads, monitor bath condition, and prevent incompatible recipes; restoration retains manually controlled exceptions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Cleaning is a validated and traceable process rather than an undocumented bench habit.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed, monitored, lower-emission process system",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves skill from repetitive handling toward recipe selection and exception management",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Consistency, lower contamination, reduced waste, and better auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material compatibility, chemistry regulation, and small-batch economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent toxicity, fire, waste, seals, cross-contamination, and preservation-sensitive surfaces",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-212",
    "canonical_name": "Centrifugal cleaning machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-212",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Removes particles, degraded lubricants, and process residues before assembly or service.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Sealed fluid paths, recipe control, solvent recovery, filtration, and automated logs expand as health and environmental controls tighten.",
    "scenario_2041": "Professional cleaning systems identify loads, monitor bath condition, and prevent incompatible recipes; restoration retains manually controlled exceptions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Cleaning is a validated and traceable process rather than an undocumented bench habit.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed, monitored, lower-emission process system",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves skill from repetitive handling toward recipe selection and exception management",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Consistency, lower contamination, reduced waste, and better auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material compatibility, chemistry regulation, and small-batch economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent toxicity, fire, waste, seals, cross-contamination, and preservation-sensitive surfaces",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-213",
    "canonical_name": "Ultrasonic cleaner",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-213",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Removes particles, degraded lubricants, and process residues before assembly or service.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Sealed fluid paths, recipe control, solvent recovery, filtration, and automated logs expand as health and environmental controls tighten.",
    "scenario_2041": "Professional cleaning systems identify loads, monitor bath condition, and prevent incompatible recipes; restoration retains manually controlled exceptions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Cleaning is a validated and traceable process rather than an undocumented bench habit.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed, monitored, lower-emission process system",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves skill from repetitive handling toward recipe selection and exception management",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Consistency, lower contamination, reduced waste, and better auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material compatibility, chemistry regulation, and small-batch economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent toxicity, fire, waste, seals, cross-contamination, and preservation-sensitive surfaces",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-214",
    "canonical_name": "Vapor degreaser",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-214",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Removes particles, degraded lubricants, and process residues before assembly or service.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Sealed fluid paths, recipe control, solvent recovery, filtration, and automated logs expand as health and environmental controls tighten.",
    "scenario_2041": "Professional cleaning systems identify loads, monitor bath condition, and prevent incompatible recipes; restoration retains manually controlled exceptions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Cleaning is a validated and traceable process rather than an undocumented bench habit.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed, monitored, lower-emission process system",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves skill from repetitive handling toward recipe selection and exception management",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Consistency, lower contamination, reduced waste, and better auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material compatibility, chemistry regulation, and small-batch economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent toxicity, fire, waste, seals, cross-contamination, and preservation-sensitive surfaces",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-215",
    "canonical_name": "Rinse station",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-215",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Removes particles, degraded lubricants, and process residues before assembly or service.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Sealed fluid paths, recipe control, solvent recovery, filtration, and automated logs expand as health and environmental controls tighten.",
    "scenario_2041": "Professional cleaning systems identify loads, monitor bath condition, and prevent incompatible recipes; restoration retains manually controlled exceptions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Cleaning is a validated and traceable process rather than an undocumented bench habit.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed, monitored, lower-emission process system",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves skill from repetitive handling toward recipe selection and exception management",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Consistency, lower contamination, reduced waste, and better auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material compatibility, chemistry regulation, and small-batch economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent toxicity, fire, waste, seals, cross-contamination, and preservation-sensitive surfaces",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-216",
    "canonical_name": "Heated drying cabinet",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-216",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Removes particles, degraded lubricants, and process residues before assembly or service.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Sealed fluid paths, recipe control, solvent recovery, filtration, and automated logs expand as health and environmental controls tighten.",
    "scenario_2041": "Professional cleaning systems identify loads, monitor bath condition, and prevent incompatible recipes; restoration retains manually controlled exceptions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Cleaning is a validated and traceable process rather than an undocumented bench habit.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed, monitored, lower-emission process system",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves skill from repetitive handling toward recipe selection and exception management",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Consistency, lower contamination, reduced waste, and better auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material compatibility, chemistry regulation, and small-batch economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent toxicity, fire, waste, seals, cross-contamination, and preservation-sensitive surfaces",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-217",
    "canonical_name": "Compressed-air dryer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-217",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Consistency, lower contamination, reduced waste, and better auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material compatibility, chemistry regulation, and small-batch economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-218",
    "canonical_name": "Pith oiler block",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-218",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Meters lubricant or modifies surface behavior at designated friction points.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Dose repeatability, tip condition, fluid identification, and image-based verification improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production lubrication is increasingly robotically deposited and optically checked; hand lubrication remains for irregular service and restoration.",
    "scenario_2051": "The accepted dose and lubricant are linked to part, environmental target, and service record.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From manual dosing toward verified micro-deposition",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual judgment persists for capillary behavior, old surfaces, and exceptions",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower over-oiling, contamination, and variation",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Fluid aging, wetting behavior, proprietary lubricants, and visual detectability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent exposure, fire, waste disposal, cross-contamination, and undocumented treatment",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-219",
    "canonical_name": "Needle oiler",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-219",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Meters lubricant or modifies surface behavior at designated friction points.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Dose repeatability, tip condition, fluid identification, and image-based verification improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production lubrication is increasingly robotically deposited and optically checked; hand lubrication remains for irregular service and restoration.",
    "scenario_2051": "The accepted dose and lubricant are linked to part, environmental target, and service record.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From manual dosing toward verified micro-deposition",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual judgment persists for capillary behavior, old surfaces, and exceptions",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower over-oiling, contamination, and variation",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Fluid aging, wetting behavior, proprietary lubricants, and visual detectability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent exposure, fire, waste disposal, cross-contamination, and undocumented treatment",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-220",
    "canonical_name": "Automatic micro-oiler",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-220",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Meters lubricant or modifies surface behavior at designated friction points.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Dose repeatability, tip condition, fluid identification, and image-based verification improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production lubrication is increasingly robotically deposited and optically checked; hand lubrication remains for irregular service and restoration.",
    "scenario_2051": "The accepted dose and lubricant are linked to part, environmental target, and service record.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From manual dosing toward verified micro-deposition",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual judgment persists for capillary behavior, old surfaces, and exceptions",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower over-oiling, contamination, and variation",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Fluid aging, wetting behavior, proprietary lubricants, and visual detectability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent exposure, fire, waste disposal, cross-contamination, and undocumented treatment",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-221",
    "canonical_name": "Grease applicator",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-221",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Meters lubricant or modifies surface behavior at designated friction points.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Dose repeatability, tip condition, fluid identification, and image-based verification improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production lubrication is increasingly robotically deposited and optically checked; hand lubrication remains for irregular service and restoration.",
    "scenario_2051": "The accepted dose and lubricant are linked to part, environmental target, and service record.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From manual dosing toward verified micro-deposition",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual judgment persists for capillary behavior, old surfaces, and exceptions",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower over-oiling, contamination, and variation",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Fluid aging, wetting behavior, proprietary lubricants, and visual detectability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent exposure, fire, waste disposal, cross-contamination, and undocumented treatment",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-222",
    "canonical_name": "Epilame-treatment station",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-222",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Meters lubricant or modifies surface behavior at designated friction points.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Dose repeatability, tip condition, fluid identification, and image-based verification improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production lubrication is increasingly robotically deposited and optically checked; hand lubrication remains for irregular service and restoration.",
    "scenario_2051": "The accepted dose and lubricant are linked to part, environmental target, and service record.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From manual dosing toward verified micro-deposition",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual judgment persists for capillary behavior, old surfaces, and exceptions",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower over-oiling, contamination, and variation",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Fluid aging, wetting behavior, proprietary lubricants, and visual detectability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent exposure, fire, waste disposal, cross-contamination, and undocumented treatment",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-223",
    "canonical_name": "Oil-viscosity tester",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-223",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Meters lubricant or modifies surface behavior at designated friction points.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Dose repeatability, tip condition, fluid identification, and image-based verification improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Production lubrication is increasingly robotically deposited and optically checked; hand lubrication remains for irregular service and restoration.",
    "scenario_2051": "The accepted dose and lubricant are linked to part, environmental target, and service record.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From manual dosing toward verified micro-deposition",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Manual judgment persists for capillary behavior, old surfaces, and exceptions",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower over-oiling, contamination, and variation",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Fluid aging, wetting behavior, proprietary lubricants, and visual detectability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent exposure, fire, waste disposal, cross-contamination, and undocumented treatment",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-224",
    "canonical_name": "Demagnetizer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-224",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Reduces magnetic or electrostatic contamination.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Closed-loop solvent management, lower-emission chemistries, dose control, machine logging, and optical verification expand in professional facilities.",
    "scenario_2041": "Sensor-rich cleaning and lubrication cells reproduce validated recipes and flag contamination or abnormal consumption before final assembly.",
    "scenario_2051": "Routine production steps are highly automated, while restoration retains manual recipes for fragile or historically significant components.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "More reproducible, lower-emission, and evidence-producing process control",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves skill from repetitive handling toward recipe selection and exception management",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Consistency, lower contamination, reduced waste, and better auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material compatibility, chemistry regulation, and small-batch economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent exposure, fire, waste disposal, cross-contamination, and undocumented treatment",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-225",
    "canonical_name": "Dust ionizer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-225",
    "category": "Cleaning, lubrication, and contamination control",
    "primary_function": "Reduces magnetic or electrostatic contamination.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Mature cleaning, rinsing, drying, lubrication, demagnetization, and contamination-control tools; repeatability depends heavily on process discipline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Closed-loop solvent management, lower-emission chemistries, dose control, machine logging, and optical verification expand in professional facilities.",
    "scenario_2041": "Sensor-rich cleaning and lubrication cells reproduce validated recipes and flag contamination or abnormal consumption before final assembly.",
    "scenario_2051": "Routine production steps are highly automated, while restoration retains manual recipes for fragile or historically significant components.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "More reproducible, lower-emission, and evidence-producing process control",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves skill from repetitive handling toward recipe selection and exception management",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; consumables and software may lock users into vendor ecosystems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Consistency, lower contamination, reduced waste, and better auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material compatibility, chemistry regulation, and small-batch economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Solvent exposure, fire, waste disposal, cross-contamination, and undocumented treatment",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S014;FWT-S064;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-226",
    "canonical_name": "Master regulator clock",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-226",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Measures rate, beat, amplitude, frequency, or stability against a reference.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-227",
    "canonical_name": "Astronomical transit instrument for time determination",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-227",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-228",
    "canonical_name": "Marine-chronometer comparator",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-228",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Measures rate, beat, amplitude, frequency, or stability against a reference.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic position sequences, environmental metadata, waveform classification, and networked result storage expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Models compare a watch against its own history and population-level patterns, flagging likely faults without claiming a complete diagnosis.",
    "scenario_2051": "Timing data become longitudinal service evidence; expert interpretation remains necessary for unusual escapements, noise, and intentional design choices.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From instantaneous reading to longitudinal, model-assisted diagnosis",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from manual reading toward causal diagnosis and adjustment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster triage, richer fault evidence, and reproducible certification",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Lift-angle assumptions, acoustic noise, nonstandard escapements, and proprietary algorithms",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-229",
    "canonical_name": "Beat counter",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-229",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Measures rate, beat, amplitude, frequency, or stability against a reference.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic position sequences, environmental metadata, waveform classification, and networked result storage expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Models compare a watch against its own history and population-level patterns, flagging likely faults without claiming a complete diagnosis.",
    "scenario_2051": "Timing data become longitudinal service evidence; expert interpretation remains necessary for unusual escapements, noise, and intentional design choices.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From instantaneous reading to longitudinal, model-assisted diagnosis",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from manual reading toward causal diagnosis and adjustment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster triage, richer fault evidence, and reproducible certification",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Lift-angle assumptions, acoustic noise, nonstandard escapements, and proprietary algorithms",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-230",
    "canonical_name": "Acoustic timing microphone",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-230",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Measures rate, beat, amplitude, frequency, or stability against a reference.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic position sequences, environmental metadata, waveform classification, and networked result storage expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Models compare a watch against its own history and population-level patterns, flagging likely faults without claiming a complete diagnosis.",
    "scenario_2051": "Timing data become longitudinal service evidence; expert interpretation remains necessary for unusual escapements, noise, and intentional design choices.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From instantaneous reading to longitudinal, model-assisted diagnosis",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from manual reading toward causal diagnosis and adjustment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster triage, richer fault evidence, and reproducible certification",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Lift-angle assumptions, acoustic noise, nonstandard escapements, and proprietary algorithms",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-231",
    "canonical_name": "Paper-tape timing machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-231",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Measures rate, beat, amplitude, frequency, or stability against a reference.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic position sequences, environmental metadata, waveform classification, and networked result storage expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Models compare a watch against its own history and population-level patterns, flagging likely faults without claiming a complete diagnosis.",
    "scenario_2051": "Timing data become longitudinal service evidence; expert interpretation remains necessary for unusual escapements, noise, and intentional design choices.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From instantaneous reading to longitudinal, model-assisted diagnosis",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from manual reading toward causal diagnosis and adjustment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster triage, richer fault evidence, and reproducible certification",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Lift-angle assumptions, acoustic noise, nonstandard escapements, and proprietary algorithms",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-232",
    "canonical_name": "Vibrograf-type timing machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-232",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Measures rate, beat, amplitude, frequency, or stability against a reference.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic position sequences, environmental metadata, waveform classification, and networked result storage expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Models compare a watch against its own history and population-level patterns, flagging likely faults without claiming a complete diagnosis.",
    "scenario_2051": "Timing data become longitudinal service evidence; expert interpretation remains necessary for unusual escapements, noise, and intentional design choices.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From instantaneous reading to longitudinal, model-assisted diagnosis",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from manual reading toward causal diagnosis and adjustment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster triage, richer fault evidence, and reproducible certification",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Lift-angle assumptions, acoustic noise, nonstandard escapements, and proprietary algorithms",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-233",
    "canonical_name": "Electronic timegrapher",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-233",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Measures rate, beat, amplitude, frequency, or stability against a reference.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic position sequences, environmental metadata, waveform classification, and networked result storage expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Models compare a watch against its own history and population-level patterns, flagging likely faults without claiming a complete diagnosis.",
    "scenario_2051": "Timing data become longitudinal service evidence; expert interpretation remains necessary for unusual escapements, noise, and intentional design choices.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From instantaneous reading to longitudinal, model-assisted diagnosis",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from manual reading toward causal diagnosis and adjustment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster triage, richer fault evidence, and reproducible certification",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Lift-angle assumptions, acoustic noise, nonstandard escapements, and proprietary algorithms",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-234",
    "canonical_name": "Multichannel production timing system",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-234",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic position sequences, environmental metadata, waveform classification, and networked result storage expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Models compare a watch against its own history and population-level patterns, flagging likely faults without claiming a complete diagnosis.",
    "scenario_2051": "Timing data become longitudinal service evidence; expert interpretation remains necessary for unusual escapements, noise, and intentional design choices.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From instantaneous reading to longitudinal, model-assisted diagnosis",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from manual reading toward causal diagnosis and adjustment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster triage, richer fault evidence, and reproducible certification",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Lift-angle assumptions, acoustic noise, nonstandard escapements, and proprietary algorithms",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-235",
    "canonical_name": "Quartz watch analyzer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-235",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Instruments add guided test sequences, component databases, low-current measurement, and downloadable reports.",
    "scenario_2041": "Mechanical, quartz, hybrid, and connected-watch diagnostics converge at multi-domain service stations, though secure firmware access may remain restricted.",
    "scenario_2051": "Electronic service requires both physical measurement and cybersecurity-aware software tools; unsupported devices create growing service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Convergence of electronic measurement, software access, and lifecycle support",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Requires cross-domain diagnosis rather than only component substitution",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Battery safety, ESD, secure access, data privacy, and software obsolescence",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-236",
    "canonical_name": "Frequency counter",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-236",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Measures rate, beat, amplitude, frequency, or stability against a reference.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Instruments add guided test sequences, component databases, low-current measurement, and downloadable reports.",
    "scenario_2041": "Mechanical, quartz, hybrid, and connected-watch diagnostics converge at multi-domain service stations, though secure firmware access may remain restricted.",
    "scenario_2051": "Electronic service requires both physical measurement and cybersecurity-aware software tools; unsupported devices create growing service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Convergence of electronic measurement, software access, and lifecycle support",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Requires cross-domain diagnosis rather than only component substitution",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Battery safety, ESD, secure access, data privacy, and software obsolescence",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-237",
    "canonical_name": "Oscilloscope",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-237",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Diagnoses electrical and electronic watch circuits.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Instruments add guided test sequences, component databases, low-current measurement, and downloadable reports.",
    "scenario_2041": "Mechanical, quartz, hybrid, and connected-watch diagnostics converge at multi-domain service stations, though secure firmware access may remain restricted.",
    "scenario_2051": "Electronic service requires both physical measurement and cybersecurity-aware software tools; unsupported devices create growing service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Convergence of electronic measurement, software access, and lifecycle support",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Requires cross-domain diagnosis rather than only component substitution",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Battery safety, ESD, secure access, data privacy, and software obsolescence",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-238",
    "canonical_name": "Digital multimeter",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-238",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Diagnoses electrical and electronic watch circuits.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Instruments add guided test sequences, component databases, low-current measurement, and downloadable reports.",
    "scenario_2041": "Mechanical, quartz, hybrid, and connected-watch diagnostics converge at multi-domain service stations, though secure firmware access may remain restricted.",
    "scenario_2051": "Electronic service requires both physical measurement and cybersecurity-aware software tools; unsupported devices create growing service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Convergence of electronic measurement, software access, and lifecycle support",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Requires cross-domain diagnosis rather than only component substitution",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Battery safety, ESD, secure access, data privacy, and software obsolescence",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-239",
    "canonical_name": "Coil tester",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-239",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Meters lubricant or modifies surface behavior at designated friction points.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Instruments add guided test sequences, component databases, low-current measurement, and downloadable reports.",
    "scenario_2041": "Mechanical, quartz, hybrid, and connected-watch diagnostics converge at multi-domain service stations, though secure firmware access may remain restricted.",
    "scenario_2051": "Electronic service requires both physical measurement and cybersecurity-aware software tools; unsupported devices create growing service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Convergence of electronic measurement, software access, and lifecycle support",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Requires cross-domain diagnosis rather than only component substitution",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Battery safety, ESD, secure access, data privacy, and software obsolescence",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-240",
    "canonical_name": "Battery tester",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-240",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Diagnoses electrical and electronic watch circuits.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Instruments add guided test sequences, component databases, low-current measurement, and downloadable reports.",
    "scenario_2041": "Mechanical, quartz, hybrid, and connected-watch diagnostics converge at multi-domain service stations, though secure firmware access may remain restricted.",
    "scenario_2051": "Electronic service requires both physical measurement and cybersecurity-aware software tools; unsupported devices create growing service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Convergence of electronic measurement, software access, and lifecycle support",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Requires cross-domain diagnosis rather than only component substitution",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Battery safety, ESD, secure access, data privacy, and software obsolescence",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-241",
    "canonical_name": "Rate-trimmer programmer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-241",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Diagnoses electrical and electronic watch circuits.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Instruments add guided test sequences, component databases, low-current measurement, and downloadable reports.",
    "scenario_2041": "Mechanical, quartz, hybrid, and connected-watch diagnostics converge at multi-domain service stations, though secure firmware access may remain restricted.",
    "scenario_2051": "Electronic service requires both physical measurement and cybersecurity-aware software tools; unsupported devices create growing service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Convergence of electronic measurement, software access, and lifecycle support",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Requires cross-domain diagnosis rather than only component substitution",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Battery safety, ESD, secure access, data privacy, and software obsolescence",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-242",
    "canonical_name": "Current-consumption tester",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-242",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Diagnoses electrical and electronic watch circuits.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Instruments add guided test sequences, component databases, low-current measurement, and downloadable reports.",
    "scenario_2041": "Mechanical, quartz, hybrid, and connected-watch diagnostics converge at multi-domain service stations, though secure firmware access may remain restricted.",
    "scenario_2051": "Electronic service requires both physical measurement and cybersecurity-aware software tools; unsupported devices create growing service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Convergence of electronic measurement, software access, and lifecycle support",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Requires cross-domain diagnosis rather than only component substitution",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Battery safety, ESD, secure access, data privacy, and software obsolescence",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-243",
    "canonical_name": "Quartz-pulse detector",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-243",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Diagnoses electrical and electronic watch circuits.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Instruments add guided test sequences, component databases, low-current measurement, and downloadable reports.",
    "scenario_2041": "Mechanical, quartz, hybrid, and connected-watch diagnostics converge at multi-domain service stations, though secure firmware access may remain restricted.",
    "scenario_2051": "Electronic service requires both physical measurement and cybersecurity-aware software tools; unsupported devices create growing service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Convergence of electronic measurement, software access, and lifecycle support",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Requires cross-domain diagnosis rather than only component substitution",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Battery safety, ESD, secure access, data privacy, and software obsolescence",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-244",
    "canonical_name": "Mechanical-amplitude analyzer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-244",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Measures rate, beat, amplitude, frequency, or stability against a reference.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic position sequences, environmental metadata, waveform classification, and networked result storage expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Models compare a watch against its own history and population-level patterns, flagging likely faults without claiming a complete diagnosis.",
    "scenario_2051": "Timing data become longitudinal service evidence; expert interpretation remains necessary for unusual escapements, noise, and intentional design choices.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From instantaneous reading to longitudinal, model-assisted diagnosis",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from manual reading toward causal diagnosis and adjustment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster triage, richer fault evidence, and reproducible certification",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Lift-angle assumptions, acoustic noise, nonstandard escapements, and proprietary algorithms",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-245",
    "canonical_name": "Lift-angle calculator",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-245",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-246",
    "canonical_name": "Positional test carousel",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-246",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-247",
    "canonical_name": "Temperature test chamber",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-247",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-248",
    "canonical_name": "Magnetic-resistance test rig",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-248",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-249",
    "canonical_name": "Shock-testing machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-249",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-250",
    "canonical_name": "Chronometer test cabinet",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-250",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Measures rate, beat, amplitude, frequency, or stability against a reference.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic position sequences, environmental metadata, waveform classification, and networked result storage expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Models compare a watch against its own history and population-level patterns, flagging likely faults without claiming a complete diagnosis.",
    "scenario_2051": "Timing data become longitudinal service evidence; expert interpretation remains necessary for unusual escapements, noise, and intentional design choices.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From instantaneous reading to longitudinal, model-assisted diagnosis",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts from manual reading toward causal diagnosis and adjustment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster triage, richer fault evidence, and reproducible certification",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Lift-angle assumptions, acoustic noise, nonstandard escapements, and proprietary algorithms",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-251",
    "canonical_name": "Micrometer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-251",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Quantifies dimensions, geometry, surface condition, or material composition.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-252",
    "canonical_name": "Vernier caliper",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-252",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Quantifies dimensions, geometry, surface condition, or material composition.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-253",
    "canonical_name": "Dial indicator",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-253",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Makes, decorates, prints, finishes, or installs visible watch components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-254",
    "canonical_name": "Lever comparator",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-254",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Quantifies dimensions, geometry, surface condition, or material composition.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-255",
    "canonical_name": "Measuring microscope",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-255",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Enlarges or improves visibility so surfaces, alignment, contamination, and defects can be judged.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Higher-resolution cameras, depth measurement, image annotation, and searchable reference libraries become standard in high-value work.",
    "scenario_2041": "Computer vision pre-screens defects, compares prior condition images, and guides measurement; an accountable human remains responsible for conclusions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Visual inspection is multimodal and continuously documented, but direct optical viewing remains important for depth perception and adversarial cases.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From viewing aid to documented multimodal evidence system",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Augments observation and memory rather than replacing expert interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatable inspection, remote consultation, training, and stronger condition records",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Algorithm bias, lighting dependence, data retention, and misleading image enhancement",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Image provenance, privacy, false positives, and evidence chain of custody",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-256",
    "canonical_name": "Optical comparator or profile projector",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-256",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Removes metal by hand to establish shape, fit, or finish.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatable inspection, remote consultation, training, and stronger condition records",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Algorithm bias, lighting dependence, data retention, and misleading image enhancement",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Image provenance, privacy, false positives, and evidence chain of custody",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-257",
    "canonical_name": "Coordinate measuring machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-257",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Quantifies dimensions, geometry, surface condition, or material composition.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-258",
    "canonical_name": "Roundness tester",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-258",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Quantifies dimensions, geometry, surface condition, or material composition.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-259",
    "canonical_name": "Surface-roughness profilometer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-259",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Quantifies dimensions, geometry, surface condition, or material composition.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-260",
    "canonical_name": "Optical interferometer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-260",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Quantifies dimensions, geometry, surface condition, or material composition.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Automatic data capture, AI-assisted anomaly classification, in-machine metrology, and standardized result exports expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal inspection combines geometry, surface, material, acoustics, and performance history to guide production and high-value service.",
    "scenario_2051": "Continuous measurement closes the loop between design, manufacturing, assembly, service, and authentication; humans adjudicate ambiguous evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From episodic measurement to continuous, linked, decision-supporting metrology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves work from reading instruments toward interpreting evidence and setting acceptability",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier defect detection, lower rework, better comparables, and stronger authentication evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Calibration, uncertainty, sample bias, cost, and algorithm opacity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence, uncalibrated measurements, privacy, radiation, and evidentiary misuse",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-261",
    "canonical_name": "Laser displacement sensor",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-261",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Quantifies dimensions, geometry, surface condition, or material composition.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ultrashort-pulse sources, beam monitoring, vision registration, and parameter libraries broaden precision cutting, texturing, welding, and ablation.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop laser cells inspect the result and adapt paths or energy within validated limits.",
    "scenario_2051": "Lasers are normal tools for difficult materials and localized repair, but process disclosure and surface interpretation become essential for collectors and conservators.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Toward ultrafast, monitored, adaptive material processing",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Humans define acceptable intervention and finish; machines control repeatable energy delivery",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mixed; measurements are physical, data formats and algorithms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Localized processing, low heat input, complex textures, and repair of valuable components",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, parameter qualification, optical access, reflectivity, and operator competence",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Laser safety, fumes, hidden rework, and irreversible alteration",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-262",
    "canonical_name": "X-ray fluorescence spectrometer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-262",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Quantifies dimensions, geometry, surface condition, or material composition.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Higher-resolution non-destructive imaging and material screening become more available through shared laboratories and specialist service providers.",
    "scenario_2041": "CT, surface metrology, and material data are fused for failure analysis, reverse engineering, and authentication of high-value pieces.",
    "scenario_2051": "Object-level volumetric records may support conservation and component comparison, but cost and interpretation keep routine use selective.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Selective growth as high-value non-destructive evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 in institutions and premium service",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Experts define scan strategy and interpret artifacts and uncertainty",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Data formats partly standardized; workflows and algorithms vendor-dependent",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Internal inspection without disassembly and defensible geometry records",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Resolution, beam artifacts, cost, throughput, and radiation controls",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Radiation safety, privacy of proprietary geometry, and overclaiming scan certainty",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-263",
    "canonical_name": "Industrial radiography or CT scanner",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-263",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Quantifies dimensions, geometry, surface condition, or material composition.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Electronic timing, dimensional metrology, microscopy, material analysis, environmental testing, and CT already support modern production and service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Higher-resolution non-destructive imaging and material screening become more available through shared laboratories and specialist service providers.",
    "scenario_2041": "CT, surface metrology, and material data are fused for failure analysis, reverse engineering, and authentication of high-value pieces.",
    "scenario_2051": "Object-level volumetric records may support conservation and component comparison, but cost and interpretation keep routine use selective.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Selective growth as high-value non-destructive evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041 in institutions and premium service",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Experts define scan strategy and interpret artifacts and uncertainty",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Data formats partly standardized; workflows and algorithms vendor-dependent",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Internal inspection without disassembly and defensible geometry records",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Resolution, beam artifacts, cost, throughput, and radiation controls",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Radiation safety, privacy of proprietary geometry, and overclaiming scan certainty",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S012;FWT-S013;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S061;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-264",
    "canonical_name": "Line-shaft drive system",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-264",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Commercial use continues to contract; surviving examples concentrate in museums, conservation workshops, and demonstrations of historical production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Primarily heritage infrastructure, occasionally used by specialist makers who deliberately reproduce historical process conditions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Rare but culturally valuable; maintained as working industrial heritage rather than competitive production equipment.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From production equipment to working heritage asset",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already declining; heritage persistence through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Preserves historical process knowledge",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mechanically open but difficult to maintain",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Authentic training and historical process evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Safety, efficiency, space, and spare parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Guarding, entanglement, emissions, and preservation of original fabric",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-265",
    "canonical_name": "Foot-powered treadle",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-265",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supplies mechanical power to workshop or factory machinery.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Commercial use continues to contract; surviving examples concentrate in museums, conservation workshops, and demonstrations of historical production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Primarily heritage infrastructure, occasionally used by specialist makers who deliberately reproduce historical process conditions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Rare but culturally valuable; maintained as working industrial heritage rather than competitive production equipment.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From production equipment to working heritage asset",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already declining; heritage persistence through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Preserves historical process knowledge",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mechanically open but difficult to maintain",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Authentic training and historical process evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Safety, efficiency, space, and spare parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Guarding, entanglement, emissions, and preservation of original fabric",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-266",
    "canonical_name": "Water-powered workshop drive",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-266",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supplies mechanical power to workshop or factory machinery.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Commercial use continues to contract; surviving examples concentrate in museums, conservation workshops, and demonstrations of historical production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Primarily heritage infrastructure, occasionally used by specialist makers who deliberately reproduce historical process conditions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Rare but culturally valuable; maintained as working industrial heritage rather than competitive production equipment.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From production equipment to working heritage asset",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already declining; heritage persistence through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Preserves historical process knowledge",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mechanically open but difficult to maintain",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Authentic training and historical process evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Safety, efficiency, space, and spare parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Guarding, entanglement, emissions, and preservation of original fabric",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-267",
    "canonical_name": "Steam-powered factory drive",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-267",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supplies mechanical power to workshop or factory machinery.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Commercial use continues to contract; surviving examples concentrate in museums, conservation workshops, and demonstrations of historical production.",
    "scenario_2041": "Primarily heritage infrastructure, occasionally used by specialist makers who deliberately reproduce historical process conditions.",
    "scenario_2051": "Rare but culturally valuable; maintained as working industrial heritage rather than competitive production equipment.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From production equipment to working heritage asset",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already declining; heritage persistence through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Preserves historical process knowledge",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Mechanically open but difficult to maintain",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Authentic training and historical process evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Safety, efficiency, space, and spare parts",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Guarding, entanglement, emissions, and preservation of original fabric",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-268",
    "canonical_name": "Electric-motor drive",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-268",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supplies mechanical power to workshop or factory machinery.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "More machines combine in-process sensing, automated tool compensation, energy tracking, and standardized data interfaces.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop cells coordinate machining, metrology, part handling, and quality records; factories use digital twins to reduce setup and validate change.",
    "scenario_2051": "Mature high-volume lines operate as cyber-physical systems, but specialist workshops and low-volume maisons continue to use simpler or deliberately manual equipment.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Toward sensor-rich, closed-loop, software-defined production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for direction; low for exact autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive tending while increasing demand for process engineering, metrology, maintenance, and exception handling",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatability, yield, traceability, geometry freedom, and lower setup cost per variant",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital intensity, qualification, cybersecurity, vendor lock-in, and volume economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-269",
    "canonical_name": "Cam-operated automatic lathe",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-269",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-270",
    "canonical_name": "Swiss-type sliding-headstock lathe",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-270",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-271",
    "canonical_name": "Automatic screw machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-271",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-272",
    "canonical_name": "Turret lathe",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-272",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Rotates work so cylindrical features, pivots, shoulders, and surfaces can be generated concentrically.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "More machines combine in-process sensing, automated tool compensation, energy tracking, and standardized data interfaces.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop cells coordinate machining, metrology, part handling, and quality records; factories use digital twins to reduce setup and validate change.",
    "scenario_2051": "Mature high-volume lines operate as cyber-physical systems, but specialist workshops and low-volume maisons continue to use simpler or deliberately manual equipment.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Toward sensor-rich, closed-loop, software-defined production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for direction; low for exact autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive tending while increasing demand for process engineering, metrology, maintenance, and exception handling",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatability, yield, traceability, geometry freedom, and lower setup cost per variant",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital intensity, qualification, cybersecurity, vendor lock-in, and volume economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-273",
    "canonical_name": "Precision milling machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-273",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-274",
    "canonical_name": "Jig borer",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-274",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-275",
    "canonical_name": "Surface grinder",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-275",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-276",
    "canonical_name": "Cylindrical grinder",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-276",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-277",
    "canonical_name": "Centerless grinder",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-277",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-278",
    "canonical_name": "Lapping machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-278",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-279",
    "canonical_name": "Honing machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-279",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-280",
    "canonical_name": "Broaching machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-280",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Sizes, tapers, or finishes holes.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Materials, coatings, ergonomics, antimagnetic behavior, sharpening guidance, and microscopic documentation improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Robots and fixtures take over only standardized repetitive uses; hand tools dominate exceptions, restoration, finishing, and prototyping.",
    "scenario_2051": "Their commercial importance increases where buyers pay for documented craft or where parts are unavailable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent, skill-amplifying manual technology",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Human motion and tactile feedback remain the control loop",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-281",
    "canonical_name": "Blanking press",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-281",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatability, yield, traceability, geometry freedom, and lower setup cost per variant",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital intensity, qualification, cybersecurity, vendor lock-in, and volume economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-282",
    "canonical_name": "Coining press",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-282",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatability, yield, traceability, geometry freedom, and lower setup cost per variant",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital intensity, qualification, cybersecurity, vendor lock-in, and volume economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-283",
    "canonical_name": "Deep-drawing press",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-283",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatability, yield, traceability, geometry freedom, and lower setup cost per variant",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital intensity, qualification, cybersecurity, vendor lock-in, and volume economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-284",
    "canonical_name": "Transfer press",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-284",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatability, yield, traceability, geometry freedom, and lower setup cost per variant",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital intensity, qualification, cybersecurity, vendor lock-in, and volume economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-285",
    "canonical_name": "Heat-treatment furnace",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-285",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatability, yield, traceability, geometry freedom, and lower setup cost per variant",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital intensity, qualification, cybersecurity, vendor lock-in, and volume economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-286",
    "canonical_name": "Controlled-atmosphere furnace",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-286",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatability, yield, traceability, geometry freedom, and lower setup cost per variant",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital intensity, qualification, cybersecurity, vendor lock-in, and volume economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-287",
    "canonical_name": "Induction-hardening station",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-287",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatability, yield, traceability, geometry freedom, and lower setup cost per variant",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital intensity, qualification, cybersecurity, vendor lock-in, and volume economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-288",
    "canonical_name": "Wire electrical-discharge machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-288",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-289",
    "canonical_name": "Sinker electrical-discharge machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-289",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supports a specialized operation in watch or clock manufacture, assembly, regulation, repair, or conservation.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-290",
    "canonical_name": "Micro-EDM machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-290",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-291",
    "canonical_name": "CNC turning center",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-291",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-292",
    "canonical_name": "Five-axis machining center",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-292",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Tool monitoring, thermal compensation, in-process probes, automated offset correction, and connected quality data become more common.",
    "scenario_2041": "Manufacturing cells coordinate machining, washing, inspection, and part handling with human-supervised exception management.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells approach autonomous routine production, while setup, process qualification, novel geometries, and recovery from anomalies remain expert work.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop, sensor-rich, increasingly autonomous precision production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for integration; medium for autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Machine tending declines; process engineering and anomaly recovery grow",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Yield, repeatability, unattended production, and documented conformance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, tool wear, thermal error, cybersecurity, and economic minimum volumes",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-293",
    "canonical_name": "CAD workstation",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-293",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Encodes geometry, tolerance, or process intent in a digital model.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Model-based definitions, tolerance simulation, AI-assisted toolpath suggestions, and version-controlled archives expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Design models connect to process twins, metrology, service limits, and qualified replacement workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "The authoritative model includes geometry, material, process, inspection, and lifecycle constraints; human approval remains essential for safety and heritage-sensitive changes.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From geometry file to governed lifecycle model",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves effort toward constraint definition, validation, and responsibility",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster iteration, fewer translation errors, and viable short-run components",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model fidelity, intellectual property, software decay, and vendor lock-in",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Unauthorized copying, hidden model changes, and preservation of source data",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-294",
    "canonical_name": "CAM toolpath system",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-294",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Opens, closes, forms, fits, or tests the watch enclosure and external controls.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Model-based definitions, tolerance simulation, AI-assisted toolpath suggestions, and version-controlled archives expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Design models connect to process twins, metrology, service limits, and qualified replacement workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "The authoritative model includes geometry, material, process, inspection, and lifecycle constraints; human approval remains essential for safety and heritage-sensitive changes.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From geometry file to governed lifecycle model",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves effort toward constraint definition, validation, and responsibility",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster iteration, fewer translation errors, and viable short-run components",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model fidelity, intellectual property, software decay, and vendor lock-in",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Unauthorized copying, hidden model changes, and preservation of source data",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-295",
    "canonical_name": "Laser-cutting machine",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-295",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supports advanced materials, microfabrication, joining, coating, or automated inspection.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ultrashort-pulse sources, beam monitoring, vision registration, and parameter libraries broaden precision cutting, texturing, welding, and ablation.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop laser cells inspect the result and adapt paths or energy within validated limits.",
    "scenario_2051": "Lasers are normal tools for difficult materials and localized repair, but process disclosure and surface interpretation become essential for collectors and conservators.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Toward ultrafast, monitored, adaptive material processing",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Humans define acceptable intervention and finish; machines control repeatable energy delivery",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Localized processing, low heat input, complex textures, and repair of valuable components",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, parameter qualification, optical access, reflectivity, and operator competence",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Laser safety, fumes, hidden rework, and irreversible alteration",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-296",
    "canonical_name": "Laser-welding microscope",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-296",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Enlarges or improves visibility so surfaces, alignment, contamination, and defects can be judged.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ultrashort-pulse sources, beam monitoring, vision registration, and parameter libraries broaden precision cutting, texturing, welding, and ablation.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop laser cells inspect the result and adapt paths or energy within validated limits.",
    "scenario_2051": "Lasers are normal tools for difficult materials and localized repair, but process disclosure and surface interpretation become essential for collectors and conservators.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Toward ultrafast, monitored, adaptive material processing",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Humans define acceptable intervention and finish; machines control repeatable energy delivery",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Localized processing, low heat input, complex textures, and repair of valuable components",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, parameter qualification, optical access, reflectivity, and operator competence",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Laser safety, fumes, hidden rework, and irreversible alteration",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-297",
    "canonical_name": "Laser-ablation station",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-297",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supports advanced materials, microfabrication, joining, coating, or automated inspection.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Ultrashort-pulse sources, beam monitoring, vision registration, and parameter libraries broaden precision cutting, texturing, welding, and ablation.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop laser cells inspect the result and adapt paths or energy within validated limits.",
    "scenario_2051": "Lasers are normal tools for difficult materials and localized repair, but process disclosure and surface interpretation become essential for collectors and conservators.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Toward ultrafast, monitored, adaptive material processing",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Humans define acceptable intervention and finish; machines control repeatable energy delivery",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Localized processing, low heat input, complex textures, and repair of valuable components",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, parameter qualification, optical access, reflectivity, and operator competence",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Laser safety, fumes, hidden rework, and irreversible alteration",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-298",
    "canonical_name": "Physical-vapor-deposition chamber",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-298",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supports advanced materials, microfabrication, joining, coating, or automated inspection.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatability, yield, traceability, geometry freedom, and lower setup cost per variant",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital intensity, qualification, cybersecurity, vendor lock-in, and volume economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-299",
    "canonical_name": "Chemical-vapor-deposition chamber",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-299",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supports advanced materials, microfabrication, joining, coating, or automated inspection.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Recipe control, atmosphere monitoring, force signatures, energy accounting, and batch traceability improve.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material-process twins predict distortion and surface performance, with automated inspection feeding corrections.",
    "scenario_2051": "Validated recipes and lifecycle records matter as much as machine ownership; small firms often access these processes through qualified suppliers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Recipe-driven, monitored, and increasingly outsourced specialist process",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Operators become process custodians and exception managers",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatability, yield, traceability, geometry freedom, and lower setup cost per variant",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital intensity, qualification, cybersecurity, vendor lock-in, and volume economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Heat, pressure, chemical exposure, coating disclosure, and environmental compliance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-300",
    "canonical_name": "Verneuil flame-fusion furnace",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-300",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Produces components through powered, constrained, and repeatable manufacturing operations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Watch-specific suppliers refine wafer-scale flexures, silicon oscillators, electroformed microcomponents, and associated inspection.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms and integrated functions reduce part counts in selected calibres while concentrating production knowledge in specialist foundries.",
    "scenario_2051": "Microfabrication remains strategically important but not universal; repairability and long-term replacement become central design constraints.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Selective expansion of wafer-scale and electroformed horological architectures",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Design and process expertise rise; traditional repair options may shrink",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Geometry freedom, repeatability, low inertia, and integrated compliant behavior",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Foundry dependence, brittle materials, tooling economics, and long-term spares",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Repairability, supplier concentration, process opacity, and end-of-life component availability",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-301",
    "canonical_name": "Photolithography aligner",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-301",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supports advanced materials, microfabrication, joining, coating, or automated inspection.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Watch-specific suppliers refine wafer-scale flexures, silicon oscillators, electroformed microcomponents, and associated inspection.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms and integrated functions reduce part counts in selected calibres while concentrating production knowledge in specialist foundries.",
    "scenario_2051": "Microfabrication remains strategically important but not universal; repairability and long-term replacement become central design constraints.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Selective expansion of wafer-scale and electroformed horological architectures",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Design and process expertise rise; traditional repair options may shrink",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Geometry freedom, repeatability, low inertia, and integrated compliant behavior",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Foundry dependence, brittle materials, tooling economics, and long-term spares",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Repairability, supplier concentration, process opacity, and end-of-life component availability",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-302",
    "canonical_name": "Deep reactive-ion etcher",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-302",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supports advanced materials, microfabrication, joining, coating, or automated inspection.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Watch-specific suppliers refine wafer-scale flexures, silicon oscillators, electroformed microcomponents, and associated inspection.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms and integrated functions reduce part counts in selected calibres while concentrating production knowledge in specialist foundries.",
    "scenario_2051": "Microfabrication remains strategically important but not universal; repairability and long-term replacement become central design constraints.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Selective expansion of wafer-scale and electroformed horological architectures",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Design and process expertise rise; traditional repair options may shrink",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Geometry freedom, repeatability, low inertia, and integrated compliant behavior",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Foundry dependence, brittle materials, tooling economics, and long-term spares",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Repairability, supplier concentration, process opacity, and end-of-life component availability",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-303",
    "canonical_name": "UV-LIGA exposure and electroforming line",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-303",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supports advanced materials, microfabrication, joining, coating, or automated inspection.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Watch-specific suppliers refine wafer-scale flexures, silicon oscillators, electroformed microcomponents, and associated inspection.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms and integrated functions reduce part counts in selected calibres while concentrating production knowledge in specialist foundries.",
    "scenario_2051": "Microfabrication remains strategically important but not universal; repairability and long-term replacement become central design constraints.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Selective expansion of wafer-scale and electroformed horological architectures",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Design and process expertise rise; traditional repair options may shrink",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Geometry freedom, repeatability, low inertia, and integrated compliant behavior",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Foundry dependence, brittle materials, tooling economics, and long-term spares",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Repairability, supplier concentration, process opacity, and end-of-life component availability",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-304",
    "canonical_name": "Wafer-dicing saw",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-304",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supports advanced materials, microfabrication, joining, coating, or automated inspection.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Watch-specific suppliers refine wafer-scale flexures, silicon oscillators, electroformed microcomponents, and associated inspection.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms and integrated functions reduce part counts in selected calibres while concentrating production knowledge in specialist foundries.",
    "scenario_2051": "Microfabrication remains strategically important but not universal; repairability and long-term replacement become central design constraints.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Selective expansion of wafer-scale and electroformed horological architectures",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Design and process expertise rise; traditional repair options may shrink",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Geometry freedom, repeatability, low inertia, and integrated compliant behavior",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Foundry dependence, brittle materials, tooling economics, and long-term spares",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Repairability, supplier concentration, process opacity, and end-of-life component availability",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-305",
    "canonical_name": "Cleanroom wet bench",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-305",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supports posture, part control, and repeatable handwork at the watchmaker's station.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "Watch-specific suppliers refine wafer-scale flexures, silicon oscillators, electroformed microcomponents, and associated inspection.",
    "scenario_2041": "New compliant mechanisms and integrated functions reduce part counts in selected calibres while concentrating production knowledge in specialist foundries.",
    "scenario_2051": "Microfabrication remains strategically important but not universal; repairability and long-term replacement become central design constraints.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Selective expansion of wafer-scale and electroformed horological architectures",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Design and process expertise rise; traditional repair options may shrink",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Geometry freedom, repeatability, low inertia, and integrated compliant behavior",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Foundry dependence, brittle materials, tooling economics, and long-term spares",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Repairability, supplier concentration, process opacity, and end-of-life component availability",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-306",
    "canonical_name": "Automated optical-inspection cell",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-306",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "Supports advanced materials, microfabrication, joining, coating, or automated inspection.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial production spans legacy presses and automatics, modern CNC and EDM, laser processing, thin-film coating, photolithography, DRIE, UV-LIGA, and cleanroom processes.",
    "scenario_2031": "More machines combine in-process sensing, automated tool compensation, energy tracking, and standardized data interfaces.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop cells coordinate machining, metrology, part handling, and quality records; factories use digital twins to reduce setup and validate change.",
    "scenario_2051": "Mature high-volume lines operate as cyber-physical systems, but specialist workshops and low-volume maisons continue to use simpler or deliberately manual equipment.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Toward sensor-rich, closed-loop, software-defined production",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for direction; low for exact autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive tending while increasing demand for process engineering, metrology, maintenance, and exception handling",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High to very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary, increasingly connected through common interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "primarily production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatability, yield, traceability, geometry freedom, and lower setup cost per variant",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital intensity, qualification, cybersecurity, vendor lock-in, and volume economics",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Machine safety, laser and chemical hazards, data integrity, energy use, and workforce displacement",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S053;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-307",
    "canonical_name": "Maker's bench book",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-307",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Supports posture, part control, and repeatable handwork at the watchmaker's station.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "Machine-readable work instructions, digital calibration records, competency tracking, and image-rich service documentation spread.",
    "scenario_2041": "Product, part, tool, operator, and test records are increasingly linked through digital threads, with access and retention rules becoming strategic.",
    "scenario_2051": "Documentation is treated as part of the tool itself: a process without trusted calibration, provenance, and version history is commercially incomplete.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From supporting paperwork to operational infrastructure and evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Improves knowledge transfer and accountability but may constrain undocumented improvisation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Traceability, repeatability, training, compliance, and defensible service history",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Data ownership, interoperability, cybersecurity, cost, and false precision",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Privacy, access rights, record tampering, vendor failure, and preservation of obsolete formats",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-308",
    "canonical_name": "Workshop recipe notebook",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-308",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Records knowledge, dimensions, process status, identity, or calibration for repeatability and traceability.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "Machine-readable work instructions, digital calibration records, competency tracking, and image-rich service documentation spread.",
    "scenario_2041": "Product, part, tool, operator, and test records are increasingly linked through digital threads, with access and retention rules becoming strategic.",
    "scenario_2051": "Documentation is treated as part of the tool itself: a process without trusted calibration, provenance, and version history is commercially incomplete.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From supporting paperwork to operational infrastructure and evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Improves knowledge transfer and accountability but may constrain undocumented improvisation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Traceability, repeatability, training, compliance, and defensible service history",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Data ownership, interoperability, cybersecurity, cost, and false precision",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Privacy, access rights, record tampering, vendor failure, and preservation of obsolete formats",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-309",
    "canonical_name": "Dimensioned drawing or blueprint",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-309",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Records knowledge, dimensions, process status, identity, or calibration for repeatability and traceability.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "Model-based definitions, tolerance simulation, AI-assisted toolpath suggestions, and version-controlled archives expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Design models connect to process twins, metrology, service limits, and qualified replacement workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "The authoritative model includes geometry, material, process, inspection, and lifecycle constraints; human approval remains essential for safety and heritage-sensitive changes.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From geometry file to governed lifecycle model",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves effort toward constraint definition, validation, and responsibility",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster iteration, fewer translation errors, and viable short-run components",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model fidelity, intellectual property, software decay, and vendor lock-in",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Unauthorized copying, hidden model changes, and preservation of source data",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-310",
    "canonical_name": "Tolerance chart",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-310",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Records knowledge, dimensions, process status, identity, or calibration for repeatability and traceability.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "The record becomes structured, searchable, version-controlled, and linked to tools, parts, operators, and results where economically justified.",
    "scenario_2041": "Records participate in digital threads and product passports, with cryptographic signing or other integrity controls for high-value workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "Trusted history becomes an economic asset and a repair-enabling infrastructure; inaccessible proprietary records become a source of service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From static reference to machine-readable lifecycle evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces memory burden but increases responsibility for data quality and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Knowledge retention, traceability, remote support, and auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Access, interoperability, privacy, cybersecurity, and long-term preservation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Privacy, access rights, record tampering, vendor failure, and preservation of obsolete formats",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-311",
    "canonical_name": "Process traveler",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-311",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Records knowledge, dimensions, process status, identity, or calibration for repeatability and traceability.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "The record becomes structured, searchable, version-controlled, and linked to tools, parts, operators, and results where economically justified.",
    "scenario_2041": "Records participate in digital threads and product passports, with cryptographic signing or other integrity controls for high-value workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "Trusted history becomes an economic asset and a repair-enabling infrastructure; inaccessible proprietary records become a source of service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From static reference to machine-readable lifecycle evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces memory burden but increases responsibility for data quality and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Knowledge retention, traceability, remote support, and auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Access, interoperability, privacy, cybersecurity, and long-term preservation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Privacy, access rights, record tampering, vendor failure, and preservation of obsolete formats",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-312",
    "canonical_name": "Parts catalogue",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-312",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Records knowledge, dimensions, process status, identity, or calibration for repeatability and traceability.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "The record becomes structured, searchable, version-controlled, and linked to tools, parts, operators, and results where economically justified.",
    "scenario_2041": "Records participate in digital threads and product passports, with cryptographic signing or other integrity controls for high-value workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "Trusted history becomes an economic asset and a repair-enabling infrastructure; inaccessible proprietary records become a source of service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From static reference to machine-readable lifecycle evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces memory burden but increases responsibility for data quality and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Knowledge retention, traceability, remote support, and auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Access, interoperability, privacy, cybersecurity, and long-term preservation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Privacy, access rights, record tampering, vendor failure, and preservation of obsolete formats",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-313",
    "canonical_name": "Interchangeability chart",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-313",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Records knowledge, dimensions, process status, identity, or calibration for repeatability and traceability.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "The record becomes structured, searchable, version-controlled, and linked to tools, parts, operators, and results where economically justified.",
    "scenario_2041": "Records participate in digital threads and product passports, with cryptographic signing or other integrity controls for high-value workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "Trusted history becomes an economic asset and a repair-enabling infrastructure; inaccessible proprietary records become a source of service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From static reference to machine-readable lifecycle evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces memory burden but increases responsibility for data quality and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Knowledge retention, traceability, remote support, and auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Access, interoperability, privacy, cybersecurity, and long-term preservation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Privacy, access rights, record tampering, vendor failure, and preservation of obsolete formats",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-314",
    "canonical_name": "Repair manual",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-314",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Records knowledge, dimensions, process status, identity, or calibration for repeatability and traceability.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "The record becomes structured, searchable, version-controlled, and linked to tools, parts, operators, and results where economically justified.",
    "scenario_2041": "Records participate in digital threads and product passports, with cryptographic signing or other integrity controls for high-value workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "Trusted history becomes an economic asset and a repair-enabling infrastructure; inaccessible proprietary records become a source of service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From static reference to machine-readable lifecycle evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces memory burden but increases responsibility for data quality and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Knowledge retention, traceability, remote support, and auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Access, interoperability, privacy, cybersecurity, and long-term preservation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Privacy, access rights, record tampering, vendor failure, and preservation of obsolete formats",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-315",
    "canonical_name": "Service bulletin",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-315",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Records knowledge, dimensions, process status, identity, or calibration for repeatability and traceability.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "The record becomes structured, searchable, version-controlled, and linked to tools, parts, operators, and results where economically justified.",
    "scenario_2041": "Records participate in digital threads and product passports, with cryptographic signing or other integrity controls for high-value workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "Trusted history becomes an economic asset and a repair-enabling infrastructure; inaccessible proprietary records become a source of service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From static reference to machine-readable lifecycle evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces memory burden but increases responsibility for data quality and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Knowledge retention, traceability, remote support, and auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Access, interoperability, privacy, cybersecurity, and long-term preservation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Privacy, access rights, record tampering, vendor failure, and preservation of obsolete formats",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-316",
    "canonical_name": "Lubrication chart",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-316",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Records knowledge, dimensions, process status, identity, or calibration for repeatability and traceability.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "The record becomes structured, searchable, version-controlled, and linked to tools, parts, operators, and results where economically justified.",
    "scenario_2041": "Records participate in digital threads and product passports, with cryptographic signing or other integrity controls for high-value workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "Trusted history becomes an economic asset and a repair-enabling infrastructure; inaccessible proprietary records become a source of service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From static reference to machine-readable lifecycle evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces memory burden but increases responsibility for data quality and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Knowledge retention, traceability, remote support, and auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Access, interoperability, privacy, cybersecurity, and long-term preservation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Privacy, access rights, record tampering, vendor failure, and preservation of obsolete formats",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-317",
    "canonical_name": "Timing certificate",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-317",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Measures rate, beat, amplitude, frequency, or stability against a reference.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "The record becomes structured, searchable, version-controlled, and linked to tools, parts, operators, and results where economically justified.",
    "scenario_2041": "Records participate in digital threads and product passports, with cryptographic signing or other integrity controls for high-value workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "Trusted history becomes an economic asset and a repair-enabling infrastructure; inaccessible proprietary records become a source of service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From static reference to machine-readable lifecycle evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces memory burden but increases responsibility for data quality and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Knowledge retention, traceability, remote support, and auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Access, interoperability, privacy, cybersecurity, and long-term preservation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Privacy, access rights, record tampering, vendor failure, and preservation of obsolete formats",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-318",
    "canonical_name": "Calibration log",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-318",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Records knowledge, dimensions, process status, identity, or calibration for repeatability and traceability.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "The record becomes structured, searchable, version-controlled, and linked to tools, parts, operators, and results where economically justified.",
    "scenario_2041": "Records participate in digital threads and product passports, with cryptographic signing or other integrity controls for high-value workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "Trusted history becomes an economic asset and a repair-enabling infrastructure; inaccessible proprietary records become a source of service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From static reference to machine-readable lifecycle evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces memory burden but increases responsibility for data quality and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Knowledge retention, traceability, remote support, and auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Access, interoperability, privacy, cybersecurity, and long-term preservation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Privacy, access rights, record tampering, vendor failure, and preservation of obsolete formats",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-319",
    "canonical_name": "Serial and reference database",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-319",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Records knowledge, dimensions, process status, identity, or calibration for repeatability and traceability.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "The record becomes structured, searchable, version-controlled, and linked to tools, parts, operators, and results where economically justified.",
    "scenario_2041": "Records participate in digital threads and product passports, with cryptographic signing or other integrity controls for high-value workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "Trusted history becomes an economic asset and a repair-enabling infrastructure; inaccessible proprietary records become a source of service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From static reference to machine-readable lifecycle evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces memory burden but increases responsibility for data quality and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Knowledge retention, traceability, remote support, and auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Access, interoperability, privacy, cybersecurity, and long-term preservation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Privacy, access rights, record tampering, vendor failure, and preservation of obsolete formats",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-320",
    "canonical_name": "CAD-model archive",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-320",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Encodes geometry, tolerance, or process intent in a digital model.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "Model-based definitions, tolerance simulation, AI-assisted toolpath suggestions, and version-controlled archives expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Design models connect to process twins, metrology, service limits, and qualified replacement workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "The authoritative model includes geometry, material, process, inspection, and lifecycle constraints; human approval remains essential for safety and heritage-sensitive changes.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From geometry file to governed lifecycle model",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves effort toward constraint definition, validation, and responsibility",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster iteration, fewer translation errors, and viable short-run components",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model fidelity, intellectual property, software decay, and vendor lock-in",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Unauthorized copying, hidden model changes, and preservation of source data",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-321",
    "canonical_name": "Tool-control inventory",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-321",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Records knowledge, dimensions, process status, identity, or calibration for repeatability and traceability.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "The record becomes structured, searchable, version-controlled, and linked to tools, parts, operators, and results where economically justified.",
    "scenario_2041": "Records participate in digital threads and product passports, with cryptographic signing or other integrity controls for high-value workflows.",
    "scenario_2051": "Trusted history becomes an economic asset and a repair-enabling infrastructure; inaccessible proprietary records become a source of service debt.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From static reference to machine-readable lifecycle evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces memory burden but increases responsibility for data quality and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Knowledge retention, traceability, remote support, and auditability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Access, interoperability, privacy, cybersecurity, and long-term preservation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Privacy, access rights, record tampering, vendor failure, and preservation of obsolete formats",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-322",
    "canonical_name": "Machine guard",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-322",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Controls workshop hazards or monitors exposure.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "Monitoring, interlocks, exposure records, and safer enclosure design expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Safety status is integrated with tool authorization and process records in larger facilities.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-risk historical work remains human-led but occurs in increasingly controlled, documented environments.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "More measured, interlocked, and documented risk control",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Protects specialist work rather than eliminating it",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower exposure, better compliance, and preservation of hazardous heritage",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cost, training, local regulation, and small-workshop practicality",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Failure of controls can cause acute or cumulative harm; records must not substitute for physical protection",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-323",
    "canonical_name": "Local-exhaust fume hood",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-323",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Controls workshop hazards or monitors exposure.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "Monitoring, interlocks, exposure records, and safer enclosure design expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Safety status is integrated with tool authorization and process records in larger facilities.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-risk historical work remains human-led but occurs in increasingly controlled, documented environments.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "More measured, interlocked, and documented risk control",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Protects specialist work rather than eliminating it",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower exposure, better compliance, and preservation of hazardous heritage",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cost, training, local regulation, and small-workshop practicality",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Failure of controls can cause acute or cumulative harm; records must not substitute for physical protection",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-324",
    "canonical_name": "Flammable-solvent cabinet",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-324",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Controls workshop hazards or monitors exposure.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "Monitoring, interlocks, exposure records, and safer enclosure design expand.",
    "scenario_2041": "Safety status is integrated with tool authorization and process records in larger facilities.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-risk historical work remains human-led but occurs in increasingly controlled, documented environments.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "More measured, interlocked, and documented risk control",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Protects specialist work rather than eliminating it",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Low to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Contested: open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower exposure, better compliance, and preservation of hazardous heritage",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cost, training, local regulation, and small-workshop practicality",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Failure of controls can cause acute or cumulative harm; records must not substitute for physical protection",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-325",
    "canonical_name": "Radiation survey meter",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-325",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Controls workshop hazards or monitors exposure.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "Specialist conservation facilities adopt stronger containment, imaging, inventory, and exposure documentation.",
    "scenario_2041": "Access becomes more institutionally concentrated as regulation, liability, and expertise requirements rise.",
    "scenario_2051": "The capability remains necessary for historic watches, but ordinary workshops increasingly refer rather than treat radioactive material.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Concentration in specialist conservation infrastructure",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Protects specialist work rather than eliminating it",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Regulated and institutionally controlled",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Preservation without uncontrolled contamination",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Licensing, waste, expertise, and public misunderstanding",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Ionizing radiation and contamination require jurisdiction-specific controls",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-326",
    "canonical_name": "Radium-containment workstation",
    "record_type": "historical_carry_forward",
    "historical_tool_id": "WT-326",
    "category": "Documentation, training, calibration, and safety",
    "primary_function": "Controls workshop hazards or monitors exposure.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Paper and digital records coexist; calibration, process, service, and safety documentation are unevenly structured and often institution-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "Specialist conservation facilities adopt stronger containment, imaging, inventory, and exposure documentation.",
    "scenario_2041": "Access becomes more institutionally concentrated as regulation, liability, and expertise requirements rise.",
    "scenario_2051": "The capability remains necessary for historic watches, but ordinary workshops increasingly refer rather than treat radioactive material.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Concentration in specialist conservation infrastructure",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Protects specialist work rather than eliminating it",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Regulated and institutionally controlled",
    "reported_production_or_service": "both production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Preservation without uncontrolled contamination",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Licensing, waste, expertise, and public misunderstanding",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Ionizing radiation and contamination require jurisdiction-specific controls",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S007;FWT-S018;FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-327",
    "canonical_name": "Movement digital twin",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Digital engineering, AI, and connected production",
    "primary_function": "A computational representation linking movement geometry, tolerances, kinematics, energy flow, and measured performance.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Early watch-specific simulation exists, but a continuously updated movement-level digital twin is not an industry-wide standard.",
    "scenario_2031": "Used selectively in advanced development to connect simulation with prototype and test data.",
    "scenario_2041": "Extends into production and service for complex calibres where model fidelity and data rights justify the cost.",
    "scenario_2051": "May become a durable engineering record that supports redesign, diagnosis, and qualified remanufacture, without replacing physical inspection.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Model-linked engineering and service evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves expert effort toward model validation and causal reasoning",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often proprietary; interoperability improves slowly",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster iteration and stronger causal diagnosis",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Model fidelity, IP, cost, and incomplete field data",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Incorrect models can produce authoritative-looking errors; long-term format preservation is essential",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S031;FWT-S032;FWT-S033"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-328",
    "canonical_name": "Manufacturing-cell digital twin",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Digital engineering, AI, and connected production",
    "primary_function": "A live model of machines, fixtures, process states, inspection, and material flow within a production cell.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "General manufacturing standards and implementations exist; watch-sector penetration is uneven and rarely disclosed.",
    "scenario_2031": "Larger suppliers use twins for commissioning, throughput analysis, and controlled change.",
    "scenario_2041": "Twin-assisted planning and maintenance are routine in capital-intensive microproduction.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-volume cells use composed twins across vendors, while small shops adopt simplified models or services.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Cyber-physical production planning and control",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for direction; medium for extent",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces routine troubleshooting but increases systems-engineering work",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Interoperability contested across vendors",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Less downtime, faster changeover, and better process understanding",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Integration cost, bad sensor data, cybersecurity, and vendor lock-in",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "A compromised or stale twin can propagate process errors",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S031;FWT-S032;FWT-S033;FWT-S036;FWT-S037"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-329",
    "canonical_name": "Lifecycle digital thread",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Traceability, cybersecurity, and repair governance",
    "primary_function": "A linked data chain connecting design, production, inspection, sale, service, repair, and end-of-life records.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Digital-thread standards and product-passport infrastructure are emerging; watch records remain fragmented.",
    "scenario_2031": "Large brands and suppliers connect more internal records; selected customer-facing histories remain partial.",
    "scenario_2041": "Independent service access and cross-brand interoperability become major commercial and regulatory disputes.",
    "scenario_2051": "Best-case systems preserve transferable, signed, component-aware histories; worst-case systems become closed access gates.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "From fragmented records to governed lifecycle infrastructure",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for expansion; low for openness",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Improves memory and accountability but can limit unauthorized repair",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Open standards compete with proprietary portals",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Traceability, recall, repair support, and provenance",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Interoperability, data rights, cybersecurity, and provider continuity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Data can be incomplete, selectively disclosed, or used to foreclose repair",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S024;FWT-S027;FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S032;FWT-S075"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-330",
    "canonical_name": "Model-based definition package",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Digital engineering, AI, and connected production",
    "primary_function": "A governed product definition containing geometry, tolerances, materials, process intent, inspection rules, and revision history.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "CAD models and drawings coexist; model-based definitions are more mature in adjacent precision industries than in publicly documented watch service.",
    "scenario_2031": "Advanced suppliers reduce drawing/model inconsistency and connect inspection plans to authoritative geometry.",
    "scenario_2041": "Qualified part manufacture increasingly begins from controlled model packages rather than reverse-engineered sketches.",
    "scenario_2051": "Long-term serviceability depends on preservation and lawful access to model-based definitions.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Authoritative digital product definition",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts effort from transcription toward validation and configuration control",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Standards exist, but implementations are vendor- and owner-controlled",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Fewer translation errors and more reliable qualification",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "IP restrictions, obsolete formats, and version ambiguity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Unauthorized changes or inaccessible models can undermine repair and authenticity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S038"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-331",
    "canonical_name": "Machine-learning defect classifier",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Digital engineering, AI, and connected production",
    "primary_function": "Software that classifies visible or measured defects from images, signals, or process data.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial AI inspection is established in other sectors; watch-specific labeled datasets are limited and proprietary.",
    "scenario_2031": "Used for pre-screening repetitive defects in dials, cases, components, and assemblies.",
    "scenario_2041": "Multimodal models combine visual, dimensional, and process data, with calibrated abstention for uncertain cases.",
    "scenario_2051": "Routine defects are screened automatically; adversarial, rare, and heritage-sensitive cases remain human-reviewed.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "AI-assisted triage with accountable human disposition",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for triage; low for full autonomy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Removes repetitive screening and raises demand for dataset curation and adjudication",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Models and datasets often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher inspection coverage and faster feedback",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Dataset bias, domain drift, false rejects, and explainability",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Automated decisions require audit trails and appeal paths",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S034;FWT-S035;FWT-S061;FWT-S062"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-332",
    "canonical_name": "Computer-vision part recognizer",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Digital engineering, AI, and connected production",
    "primary_function": "A vision system that identifies components, orientation, reference family, and likely mismatch during assembly or service.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Demonstrators and adjacent industrial systems exist; watch-specific completeness is limited by tiny variations and proprietary parts.",
    "scenario_2031": "Assists training, inventory, and gross mismatch detection at selected benches.",
    "scenario_2041": "Links recognized parts to service instructions, known variants, and product records.",
    "scenario_2051": "Common in institutional service, but experts remain responsible where variants, modifications, or counterfeits confuse the model.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Visual identification and mismatch prevention",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces search and memory burden; expert variant knowledge remains valuable",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Depends on access to images and part databases",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Service",
    "work_contexts": "service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Fewer assembly errors and faster training",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Proprietary datasets, look-alike parts, lighting, and model drift",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Misidentification can cause damage or false authenticity claims",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S034;FWT-S035;FWT-S065;FWT-S066"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-333",
    "canonical_name": "In-line optical metrology sensor",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "A compact 3D optical sensor integrated into a machine or cell for automatic dimensional and surface checks.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Commercial sensors already support microprecision and OEM integration, but watch adoption is process-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "Expands on critical parts and tool-setup checks.",
    "scenario_2041": "Feeds automatic offset correction and quality records in closed-loop cells.",
    "scenario_2051": "Becomes standard on high-value, high-variation microproduction where inspection cost can be amortized.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Continuous dimensional feedback",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already emerging; 2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces manual gauging while increasing metrology-programming work",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Hardware proprietary; data exchange can be standardized",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Earlier error detection and automatic compensation",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Optical access, reflectivity, calibration, and cycle time",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False confidence from unverified measurement programs",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S036;FWT-S061;FWT-S062"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-334",
    "canonical_name": "In-process acoustic and vibration monitor",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Digital engineering, AI, and connected production",
    "primary_function": "Sensors and models that infer cutting condition, tool wear, chatter, or abnormal assembly behavior from vibration or sound.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Established in broader machining research and industrial monitoring; public watch-specific use is sparse.",
    "scenario_2031": "Adopted selectively on unattended high-value operations and fragile tools.",
    "scenario_2041": "Signals combine with force, spindle, thermal, and inspection data for predictive control.",
    "scenario_2051": "Routine process signatures are monitored continuously; novel anomalies still require expert diagnosis.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Condition-aware process monitoring",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces surprise failures and shifts skill toward signal interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Sensor layer open; analytics often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower scrap and tool breakage",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Weak signals, changing setups, false alarms, and model transfer",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Monitoring data can expose proprietary processes and worker activity",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S035;FWT-S037"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-335",
    "canonical_name": "Adaptive tool-wear compensation",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Digital engineering, AI, and connected production",
    "primary_function": "A control function that adjusts offsets or process parameters based on measured tool wear and part results.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Compensation exists in precision manufacturing; closed-loop watch microcomponent use is not publicly quantified.",
    "scenario_2031": "Expands in high-volume turning, milling, grinding, and gear operations.",
    "scenario_2041": "Coordinates in-process metrology and predicted remaining tool life.",
    "scenario_2051": "Routine compensation becomes normal, with hard limits and human approval for process excursions.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop yield control",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves skill from manual offset chasing to process qualification",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Controller ecosystems proprietary but increasingly connected",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Stable geometry, longer tool use, and fewer bad batches",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Measurement uncertainty, thermal drift, and runaway correction",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Unsafe correction logic can create systematic hidden defects",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037;FWT-S061"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-336",
    "canonical_name": "Predictive-maintenance engine",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Digital engineering, AI, and connected production",
    "primary_function": "Software that estimates maintenance needs from machine condition, use, environment, and failure history.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Widely promoted in smart manufacturing; watch-specific return on investment varies by asset criticality.",
    "scenario_2031": "Used first on expensive, bottleneck, or cleanroom equipment.",
    "scenario_2041": "Coordinates spare parts, calibration, and production planning across connected assets.",
    "scenario_2051": "Common for capital equipment, while simple bench tools remain maintained by inspection and feel.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Risk-based maintenance for connected assets",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces emergency troubleshooting; increases data and reliability engineering",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Often vendor-controlled",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Less unplanned downtime and better spare planning",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Sparse failure data and vendor dependence",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Poor models can trigger wasteful maintenance or missed failures",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S030;FWT-S034;FWT-S036;FWT-S037"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-337",
    "canonical_name": "AI-assisted CAM optimizer",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Digital engineering, AI, and connected production",
    "primary_function": "Software that proposes toolpaths, cutting strategies, parameter windows, and setup alternatives.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Generative and AI-assisted CAM functions exist broadly; watch-specific qualification remains human-led.",
    "scenario_2031": "Speeds quoting and setup for repeat families and microbrand short runs.",
    "scenario_2041": "Uses prior process outcomes and simulation to optimize yield and cycle time.",
    "scenario_2051": "Becomes routine decision support, but release of safety-critical or irreplaceable work remains human-approved.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Generative process planning under human control",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces programming time but raises validation requirements",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Deeply tied to CAM and machine vendors",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster setup and reuse of process knowledge",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Opaque recommendations, inadequate training data, and machine mismatch",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Generated paths can damage tools, machines, or unique workpieces",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S034;FWT-S035;FWT-S055;FWT-S056"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-338",
    "canonical_name": "Generative fixture-design system",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Digital engineering, AI, and connected production",
    "primary_function": "Software that proposes workholding and handling fixtures from geometry, force, access, and process constraints.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Topology optimization and additive fixture production exist; micro-watch applications are selective.",
    "scenario_2031": "Used for prototype and short-run fixtures, especially where machining a conventional fixture is slow.",
    "scenario_2041": "Simulation, sensor feedback, and qualified material libraries improve reliability.",
    "scenario_2051": "Common as a design aid, but fragile components and irreversible operations still demand experienced review.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Faster customized workholding",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Amplifies fixture expertise rather than replacing it",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Software proprietary; output manufacturable through many routes",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Shorter setup, better support, and lower inventory of dedicated fixtures",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material creep, cleaning, tolerance stack, and certification",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Poorly validated fixtures can mark or distort components",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S039;FWT-S040;FWT-S042;FWT-S044;FWT-S045"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-339",
    "canonical_name": "Robotic microassembly cell",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Robotics, augmented work, and knowledge systems",
    "primary_function": "A sensorized robot cell for repetitive handling, placement, fastening, or inspection of miniature components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Microassembly research and industrial automation exist; flexible autonomous watch movement assembly is not routine across the sector.",
    "scenario_2031": "Expands on stable, high-volume operations with controlled component presentation.",
    "scenario_2041": "Force, vision, and process models allow more variants and smaller batches.",
    "scenario_2051": "Routine subassemblies are highly automated in large plants; repair, final adjustment, and exceptional high horology remain human-led.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Selective automation of repeatable microassembly",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive handling and creates programming, fixture, and exception roles",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Usually proprietary cells with some standard interfaces",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Consistency, throughput, ergonomics, and data capture",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Part presentation, deformability, lubricant behavior, and changeover cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Automation can hide systematic damage unless inspection is independent",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S046;FWT-S047;FWT-S048"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-340",
    "canonical_name": "Force-feedback microgripper",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Robotics, augmented work, and knowledge systems",
    "primary_function": "A robotic or teleoperated gripper that measures tiny contact forces while handling delicate components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Research platforms exist; robust watch-factory deployment is limited and task-specific.",
    "scenario_2031": "Used in selected jewel, spring, and electronic-component handling tasks.",
    "scenario_2041": "Adaptive gripping expands to more variable parts and remote expert manipulation.",
    "scenario_2051": "Becomes a standard subsystem where breakage cost and volume justify it; manual tweezers remain dominant elsewhere.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Measured miniature handling",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Extends human reach and reduces breakage on repeat tasks",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Specialized and proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower damage and measurable contact force",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Fragile sensors, contamination, part variability, and high setup cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Loss of tactile nuance and unsafe force calibration",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S046;FWT-S048"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-341",
    "canonical_name": "Vision-guided micro-screw placement cell",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Robotics, augmented work, and knowledge systems",
    "primary_function": "An automated system that identifies, places, starts, and torques miniature screws under visual control.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Miniature fastening automation exists in electronics; watch-specific deployment is selective.",
    "scenario_2031": "Adopted for repeatable production assemblies with standardized screw supply and access.",
    "scenario_2041": "Adds thread-condition detection, torque-angle signatures, and automatic traceability.",
    "scenario_2051": "Routine in high-volume production but uneconomic for heterogeneous restoration and many low-volume calibres.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Automated fastening with traceable torque",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Eliminates repetitive fastening while raising fixture and process-engineering needs",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Proprietary cell; records can be interoperable",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Consistency, lower handling damage, and fastening records",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Screw presentation, cross-threading, access, and model variation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "A bad setup can systematically damage plates or obscure serviceability",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S046;FWT-S047;FWT-S066"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-342",
    "canonical_name": "Automated jewel-placement cell",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Robotics, augmented work, and knowledge systems",
    "primary_function": "A vision- and force-controlled cell for orienting, pressing, and verifying jewels or bearing elements.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Automated bearing placement is technically feasible; watch-specific public adoption data are scarce.",
    "scenario_2031": "Used by larger movement makers for stable product families.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop depth, force, centering, and endshake-related checks improve.",
    "scenario_2051": "Production placement is highly automated; restoration and irregular plates remain a hand skill.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Closed-loop bearing placement",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Concentrates manual jeweling skill in exceptions and conservation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower fracture and placement variation",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Fragility, contamination, geometry variation, and verification complexity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Automated enlargement or replacement can reduce historical originality",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S046;FWT-S048;FWT-S061"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-343",
    "canonical_name": "Automated lubricant-deposition verification",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Robotics, augmented work, and knowledge systems",
    "primary_function": "A system that deposits or inspects microscopic lubricant amounts and records location, type, and acceptance.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Automatic oilers exist; reliable optical verification is task- and lubricant-dependent.",
    "scenario_2031": "Expands in stable production processes and critical after-sales workflows.",
    "scenario_2041": "Combines dispensing, fluorescence or optical methods, and process limits.",
    "scenario_2051": "Routine production lubrication is verified automatically; restorers retain manual control over uncertain surfaces.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Verified micro-lubrication",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces repetitive dosing and shifts skill to recipe and exception decisions",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Consumable and software ecosystems may be closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Lower over-oiling, missed points, and contamination",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Wetting behavior, optical visibility, aging, and fluid substitution",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False passes and proprietary lubricant lock-in",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S034;FWT-S046;FWT-S061;FWT-S064"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-344",
    "canonical_name": "AI timing-trace classifier",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "Software that classifies timegrapher traces and correlates patterns with likely faults or setup conditions.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Digital timing systems exist; comprehensive validated diagnostic models are not universal.",
    "scenario_2031": "Used as guided triage and training aid, with explicit confidence and alternative explanations.",
    "scenario_2041": "Learns from longitudinal service histories and multimodal measurements.",
    "scenario_2051": "Common for routine diagnosis but prohibited from making unsupervised high-stakes conclusions in mature workflows.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Probabilistic diagnostic assistance",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for triage; medium for causal accuracy",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Accelerates learning and triage; expert causal reasoning remains decisive",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Algorithms and training data often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Service",
    "work_contexts": "service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster fault isolation and more consistent training",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Nonstandard escapements, noisy data, hidden interventions, and dataset bias",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Models can overstate certainty and propagate incorrect repair choices",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S034;FWT-S035;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-345",
    "canonical_name": "Automated multi-position chronometry cell",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "A programmed station that measures rate, amplitude, beat error, environment, and position over time.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Automated multi-position systems and certification cabinets already exist.",
    "scenario_2031": "More service centers use unattended cycles and standardized reports for premium work.",
    "scenario_2041": "Cells integrate magnetism, temperature, power reserve, and longitudinal comparison.",
    "scenario_2051": "Routine certification and post-service verification are highly automated, while adjustment remains a human or supervised task.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Expanded unattended performance verification",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already emerging; 2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves labor from measurement execution to adjustment and interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Vendor platforms proprietary; output can be standardized",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Higher coverage and reproducible records",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cycle time, environmental control, nonstandard movements, and calibration",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Certificates can be misunderstood as permanent guarantees",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S010;FWT-S011;FWT-S015;FWT-S016;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-346",
    "canonical_name": "Environmental test data lake",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Digital engineering, AI, and connected production",
    "primary_function": "A governed repository linking temperature, magnetism, shock, humidity, pressure, and timing results across products and life cycles.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Test data are collected but often siloed by instrument, factory, model, or service network.",
    "scenario_2031": "Larger firms centralize data for design feedback and warranty analysis.",
    "scenario_2041": "Population-level models improve limits and early failure detection, subject to privacy and sampling controls.",
    "scenario_2051": "Longitudinal evidence informs design and service; independent workshops use federated or customer-owned subsets where access exists.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Lifecycle performance evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Improves causal analysis but creates data-governance work",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Likely proprietary with selected standardized exports",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Design feedback, anomaly detection, and defensible test history",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Siloed data, bias, retention, consent, and model drift",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Can enable surveillance or unfair warranty decisions if governance is poor",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S030;FWT-S035"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-347",
    "canonical_name": "Digital product passport interface",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Traceability, cybersecurity, and repair governance",
    "primary_function": "A tool for reading, writing, validating, or transferring structured product-identity and lifecycle information.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "EU DPP infrastructure and provisional standards exist; watches are not established as a specifically mandated category in the 2026 baseline.",
    "scenario_2031": "Voluntary brand, marketplace, insurer, and service records multiply, with inconsistent access and semantics.",
    "scenario_2041": "Interoperability pressure grows; high-value watches increasingly carry transferable identity and selected service data.",
    "scenario_2051": "A passport can become routine evidence but never substitutes for physical authentication, legal title, or condition inspection.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Persistent product identity with contested governance",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High for spread; low for universal mandate",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Adds verification and record-management tasks to service work",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Open standards compete with controlled brand systems",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Provenance, service continuity, recall, and anti-fraud support",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Data authority, physical-object binding, privacy, and provider failure",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "A passport can be cloned, stale, incomplete, or used to exclude independent repair",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S024;FWT-S027;FWT-S074;FWT-S075"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-348",
    "canonical_name": "Serialized component and service ledger",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Traceability, cybersecurity, and repair governance",
    "primary_function": "A component-aware record of installed parts, interventions, tests, and responsible parties.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Serial and service databases exist, but component-level public histories are uncommon and fragmented.",
    "scenario_2031": "Used first for high-value, regulated, connected, or CPO-linked products.",
    "scenario_2041": "Factory and independent records compete; controlled vocabularies for service parts and restoration become commercially important.",
    "scenario_2051": "High-value objects may carry durable intervention histories, but undisclosed private work and data gaps remain unavoidable.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Component-level intervention history",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Rewards careful documentation and makes undisclosed alteration riskier",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Governance likely fragmented",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Service",
    "work_contexts": "service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Better provenance, diagnosis, warranty, and resale disclosure",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Privacy, ownership disputes, access, error correction, and incomplete participation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Records can stigmatize appropriate repair or conceal unrecorded intervention",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S022;FWT-S023;FWT-S027;FWT-S074"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-349",
    "canonical_name": "Digital calibration certificate",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Traceability, cybersecurity, and repair governance",
    "primary_function": "A machine-readable, signed record of an instrument’s calibration status, uncertainty, scope, and traceability.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Digital calibration records are emerging in metrology; many watch workshops still use PDFs, labels, or paper logs.",
    "scenario_2031": "Networked instruments validate status before accepting or exporting critical tests.",
    "scenario_2041": "Calibration data flow automatically into product test records and audit systems.",
    "scenario_2051": "For professional claims, a result without accessible calibration context is treated as incomplete evidence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Calibration as machine-verifiable trust infrastructure",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces clerical checks and raises metrology literacy requirements",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Standards can be open; vendor implementations vary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Fewer out-of-calibration results and stronger evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Interoperability, certificate revocation, and long-term validation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "A signed certificate cannot compensate for misuse or unsuitable uncertainty",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S028;FWT-S029;FWT-S030;FWT-S062;FWT-S063"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-350",
    "canonical_name": "AR-guided service workstation",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Robotics, augmented work, and knowledge systems",
    "primary_function": "A bench display or headset that overlays procedures, part identification, warnings, or remote guidance onto the work area.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial AR demonstrators and remote-support systems exist; watch-bench ergonomics and precision remain limiting.",
    "scenario_2031": "Used selectively for training, uncommon calibres, compliance checks, and remote support.",
    "scenario_2041": "Hands-free guidance integrates recognized parts, tool settings, prior images, and automatic step evidence.",
    "scenario_2051": "Useful as an optional layer, not a replacement for tactile skill; poor interfaces are rejected by expert users.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Contextual guidance at the bench",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Reduces memory/search burden but does not create dexterity",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Content and device ecosystems may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Service and training",
    "work_contexts": "service;training",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster training, fewer omissions, and remote expertise",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Visual obstruction, latency, content accuracy, and cognitive overload",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Guidance errors, worker surveillance, and proprietary access restrictions",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S066;FWT-S067;FWT-S068"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-351",
    "canonical_name": "Remote-expert telepresence microscope",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Robotics, augmented work, and knowledge systems",
    "primary_function": "A networked microscope and communication setup for live remote inspection, annotation, and guidance.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Camera microscopes and remote collaboration are available; evidence-grade workflows are not standardized.",
    "scenario_2031": "Expands for training, regional service support, auction inspection, and specialist conservation consultation.",
    "scenario_2041": "Adds calibrated imaging, secure sessions, and structured findings linked to product records.",
    "scenario_2051": "Reduces geographic barriers to expertise while physical intervention remains local.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Remote access to scarce visual expertise",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already feasible; 2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Extends expert reach and supports apprentices without replacing hands-on work",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Interoperable video possible; specialist software may be closed",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Service and training",
    "work_contexts": "service;training",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Faster consultation and knowledge diffusion",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Lighting, focus, network quality, liability, and inability to feel or manipulate",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Image security, client privacy, and overconfidence without physical custody",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S065;FWT-S067;FWT-S068"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-352",
    "canonical_name": "Simulation-based dexterity trainer",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Robotics, augmented work, and knowledge systems",
    "primary_function": "A physical or extended-reality training system that rehearses procedures, force limits, fault recognition, or sequencing.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Digital and immersive training exist broadly, while credible simulation of watchmaker feel is immature.",
    "scenario_2031": "Useful for orientation, anatomy, safety, and rare failure scenarios before bench practice.",
    "scenario_2041": "Haptic and instrumented fixtures provide quantified feedback on force, alignment, and error patterns.",
    "scenario_2051": "Becomes a supplement to apprenticeship, not a substitute for real parts, materials, and tacit judgment.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Measured rehearsal before irreversible work",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Accelerates conceptual learning and exposes repeatable errors",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Content platforms may be proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Training",
    "work_contexts": "training",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Safer practice, scalable instruction, and competency evidence",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Haptic fidelity, curriculum quality, and equipment cost",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Scores can be mistaken for real competence; training data may become surveillance",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S005;FWT-S006;FWT-S068"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-353",
    "canonical_name": "Femtosecond laser micromachining cell",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "An ultrashort-pulse laser system for low-heat cutting, drilling, ablation, texturing, and modification of difficult materials.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Commercial ultrashort-pulse laser platforms already process metals, ceramics, sapphire, and silicon.",
    "scenario_2031": "Use expands for precise apertures, surfaces, microfeatures, and difficult repairs where conventional cutting is limiting.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop vision and metrology adapt parameters within validated windows.",
    "scenario_2051": "A normal specialist process in larger supply chains, while most small workshops access it through service providers.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Cold, localized, programmable material removal",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already commercial; broader use through 2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Shifts craftsmanship toward process design, finishing, and intervention limits",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Proprietary platforms; job-shop access broadens",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Low heat input, complex geometry, and difficult-material capability",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Capital, parameter development, beam access, and surface quality",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Laser safety, fumes, undisclosed rework, and altered toolmarks",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-354",
    "canonical_name": "Laser-cleaning station",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "A controlled laser system for removing selected contamination, coatings, or corrosion products with limited mechanical contact.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Laser cleaning is established in other industries and conservation contexts; watch-specific safe windows are poorly generalized.",
    "scenario_2031": "Used cautiously for selected cases, tools, moulds, and non-fragile surfaces after material testing.",
    "scenario_2041": "Spectral or vision feedback improves selectivity, but heritage components remain high risk.",
    "scenario_2051": "A specialist option rather than a universal cleaning method; documentation of intervention becomes essential.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Selective non-contact surface cleaning",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Low to medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Speculative possibility",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Requires expert material and conservation judgment",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Specialist and proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Localized cleaning without abrasives or immersion",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Unknown coatings, heat, color change, redeposition, and parameter sensitivity",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Irreversible surface alteration and misleading claims of “non-invasive” cleaning",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S053;FWT-S054;FWT-S057;FWT-S069;FWT-S070"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-355",
    "canonical_name": "Two-photon polymerization microprinter",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "A high-resolution additive system that writes three-dimensional polymer microstructures using nonlinear optical exposure.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Commercial 2PP systems can produce submicron-scale features, mainly in polymeric materials.",
    "scenario_2031": "Used for prototypes, microfixtures, optical structures, research, and sacrificial tooling relevant to horology.",
    "scenario_2041": "Material improvements and hybrid processing expand end-use applications, but metal load-bearing movement parts remain selective.",
    "scenario_2051": "Important for design freedom and tooling; unlikely to replace mainstream metal cutting for all components.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "High-resolution additive prototyping and microtooling",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already commercial; horological adoption 2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Speeds experimentation and reduces dedicated tooling",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Vendor-specific materials and software",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Complex 3D microgeometry and rapid iteration",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material durability, post-processing, throughput, and qualification",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Material aging, trapped resin, dimensional drift, and opaque vendor specifications",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S039;FWT-S040;FWT-S042;FWT-S045"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-356",
    "canonical_name": "Electrochemical micro-metal printer",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "A microscale additive process that deposits metal voxel by voxel through localized electrochemistry.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Commercial systems exist for very small metal structures; materials and throughput remain limited.",
    "scenario_2031": "Used in R&D, probes, microtools, and highly specialized prototypes.",
    "scenario_2041": "May produce selected conductive or structural features and repair deposits if qualification improves.",
    "scenario_2051": "Remains a niche complement unless material range, throughput, and repeatability improve dramatically.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Direct additive fabrication of tiny metal structures",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Low to medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Speculative possibility",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Enables geometries inaccessible to conventional tooling but requires advanced process expertise",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Toolless metal microgeometry and local deposition",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Material range, speed, surface finish, qualification, and scale",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Electrolyte handling, hidden porosity, and overclaiming material equivalence",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S039;FWT-S040;FWT-S043;FWT-S045"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-357",
    "canonical_name": "Wafer-level flexure production cell",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "A cleanroom process chain for batch-producing silicon or related compliant mechanisms and oscillator components.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Specialist suppliers already produce silicon microcomponents and flexure systems for selected watches.",
    "scenario_2031": "More oscillator and escapement architectures use wafer-scale parts where performance and volume justify foundry tooling.",
    "scenario_2041": "Integrated flexures may reduce friction and part count but deepen dependence on specialist suppliers.",
    "scenario_2051": "A significant but segmented production route; conventional metal mechanisms remain culturally and practically important.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Batch microfabrication of compliant horological mechanisms",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already commercial; selective expansion through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Moves expertise toward simulation, cleanroom processing, and system replacement rather than conventional repair",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Highly concentrated supplier ecosystem",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Repeatability, low inertia, frictionless motion, and integrated geometry",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Foundry cost, brittleness, IP, process access, and long-term spares",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Repairability and supplier concentration may create future orphaned products",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S049;FWT-S050;FWT-S052"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-358",
    "canonical_name": "Hybrid UV-LIGA and laser machining cell",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Factory machinery and microfabrication",
    "primary_function": "A workflow combining electroformed microcomponents with laser or other secondary machining for local precision and features.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "UV-LIGA and hybrid finishing are commercially used by specialist suppliers.",
    "scenario_2031": "Expands for complex flat microcomponents, escapement parts, and geometries difficult to stamp or cut economically.",
    "scenario_2041": "Closed-loop inspection and secondary processing improve functional surfaces and assembly accuracy.",
    "scenario_2051": "Remains a specialist supplier capability rather than a universal in-house watchmaker tool.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Hybrid batch microforming and local machining",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already commercial; 2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Raises design and supplier-management skill; reduces some conventional tooling",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Supplier-concentrated and proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production",
    "work_contexts": "production",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Complex profiles, repeatability, and economical batch production",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Electroforming limits, post-processing, supplier dependence, and qualification",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Process opacity, coating/material disclosure, and long-term replacement access",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S051;FWT-S053;FWT-S054"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-359",
    "canonical_name": "High-resolution micro-CT service station",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "A specialist CT workflow optimized for non-destructive internal imaging and dimensional analysis of tiny watch assemblies and parts.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Industrial micro-CT is commercial, but watch use is selective because of cost, resolution, artifacts, and interpretation.",
    "scenario_2031": "Shared labs and premium service centers use it for failure analysis, authentication, and reverse engineering.",
    "scenario_2041": "Reference scan libraries and improved reconstruction support comparison and measurement.",
    "scenario_2051": "Routine only for high-value or technically difficult cases; not a replacement for disassembly or direct examination.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Non-destructive volumetric evidence",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Expands expert vision but demands metrology and artifact interpretation",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Very high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Vendor platforms proprietary; image formats more portable",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Internal inspection and geometry capture without opening",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Resolution, beam artifacts, cost, throughput, and scan access",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Radiation safety, proprietary geometry exposure, and false certainty",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S059;FWT-S060;FWT-S062"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-360",
    "canonical_name": "Multispectral authentication workstation",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Timing, metrology, and inspection",
    "primary_function": "A station combining controlled visible, ultraviolet, infrared, fluorescence, and other imaging to compare materials, printing, lume, coatings, and alterations.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Multispectral methods are used in conservation and forensic fields; standardized watch authentication protocols are limited.",
    "scenario_2031": "Specialist dealers, auction houses, and conservators use controlled imaging more systematically.",
    "scenario_2041": "Reference libraries and model-assisted comparison improve detection of redials, relume, coating repair, and document alteration.",
    "scenario_2051": "Becomes a normal high-value evidence layer, but cannot alone prove date, authorship, or legal title.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Controlled spectral evidence for condition and authenticity",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Supports experts and makes imaging repeatable",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Methods can be open; databases may be private",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Service",
    "work_contexts": "service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Non-destructive detection and stronger documentation",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Reference scarcity, aging variation, calibration, and interpretation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Spectral differences can be overinterpreted; image provenance matters",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S034;FWT-S035;FWT-S061;FWT-S065;FWT-S074"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-361",
    "canonical_name": "Secure firmware service terminal",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Smartwatch and hybrid service",
    "primary_function": "An authenticated toolchain for diagnostics, firmware, secure provisioning, component pairing, and post-repair verification of connected watches.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Connected-device service depends on vendor software and secure access; availability to independent repair varies.",
    "scenario_2031": "Cybersecurity obligations increase logging, vulnerability handling, and controlled service access.",
    "scenario_2041": "Long-term support and independent-access rules become central to whether connected watches remain repairable.",
    "scenario_2051": "A core service tool for supported devices; unsupported terminals and closed servers create abrupt obsolescence.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Software-defined service with controlled credentials",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already necessary; 2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Adds cybersecurity and software competence to physical repair",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Usually closed and manufacturer-controlled",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Service",
    "work_contexts": "service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Reliable diagnosis, secure updates, and component configuration",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Credentials, server dependence, policy, privacy, and end-of-support",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Tool access can become a gate on lawful repair; compromised terminals threaten customers",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S025;FWT-S026;FWT-S035;FWT-S071;FWT-S072"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-362",
    "canonical_name": "Smartwatch battery-health and thermal diagnostic station",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Smartwatch and hybrid service",
    "primary_function": "A protected station that measures rechargeable-cell health, charging behavior, temperature, swelling risk, and power consumption.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Battery diagnostics and safe handling are necessary, but watch-specific independent tool access and replacement procedures vary widely.",
    "scenario_2031": "More service providers use enclosure, thermal imaging, isolation, and model-specific software checks.",
    "scenario_2041": "Regulation and circularity pressure improve battery records and replacement workflows, subject to product exemptions and design limits.",
    "scenario_2051": "Becomes standard wherever connected watches are serviced beyond unit replacement.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Battery safety and lifecycle diagnosis",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2041",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Requires electrical, thermal, software, and fire-safety competence",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium to high",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Consumables and software often proprietary",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Service",
    "work_contexts": "service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Safer repair and better distinction between battery and system faults",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Sealed construction, paired parts, fire risk, and scarce documentation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Thermal runaway, damaged cells, data loss, and misleading health estimates",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S017;FWT-S019;FWT-S020;FWT-S021;FWT-S071"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-363",
    "canonical_name": "Wearable-sensor calibration rig",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Smartwatch and hybrid service",
    "primary_function": "A controlled setup for checking optical, motion, environmental, or physiological sensors in smart and hybrid watches.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Manufacturers calibrate sensors in production; independent post-service calibration capabilities are limited.",
    "scenario_2031": "Authorized centers verify more sensor functions after battery, case, crystal, or module repair.",
    "scenario_2041": "Standardized reference phantoms and software may emerge for selected measurements, while medical claims remain tightly governed.",
    "scenario_2051": "Professional service distinguishes “device powers on” from “sensor performance verified,” but full calibration remains manufacturer-centric.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Post-repair verification of connected sensing",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Creates a new specialist role bridging metrology and electronics",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Likely closed or regulated for high-stakes sensors",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Production and service",
    "work_contexts": "production;service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Better functional assurance after repair",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "No universal references, algorithm dependence, and medical-regulatory boundaries",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "False health reassurance, privacy, and unvalidated calibration methods",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S016;FWT-S025;FWT-S049;FWT-S071"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-364",
    "canonical_name": "Parts reverse-engineering and qualified remanufacture workflow",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Traceability, cybersecurity, and repair governance",
    "primary_function": "A controlled sequence of imaging, measurement, modeling, manufacture, finishing, testing, and disclosure for unavailable parts.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Independent watchmakers already remake parts; modern metrology and manufacturing broaden capability, while legal and authenticity questions remain.",
    "scenario_2031": "Specialist networks combine optical measurement, CT, CAD, compact CNC, laser, and micro-additive processes for obsolete components.",
    "scenario_2041": "Qualification protocols distinguish a functional replacement from a historically faithful reproduction and record the intervention.",
    "scenario_2051": "Becomes essential for orphaned mechanical watches, but remains expensive and ethically sensitive.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Evidence-based remanufacture for long-term repairability",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "Already practiced; expands through 2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "High",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Strong directional inference",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Amplifies rare manual skill and makes results more reproducible",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "High",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "Can be open, but models and brand rights constrain use",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Service",
    "work_contexts": "service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Preserves otherwise unserviceable watches and knowledge",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "Cost, IP, tiny batches, material equivalence, and validation",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Replacement must be disclosed; functional success is not historical originality",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S018;FWT-S028;FWT-S038;FWT-S040;FWT-S045;FWT-S058;FWT-S059"
  },
  {
    "outlook_id": "FWT-365",
    "canonical_name": "Open repair-data exchange",
    "record_type": "emerging_capability",
    "historical_tool_id": "",
    "category": "Traceability, cybersecurity, and repair governance",
    "primary_function": "A standardized mechanism for lawful access to parts data, procedures, diagnostics, calibration requirements, and service records.",
    "reported_2026_baseline": "Repair regulation is expanding, but watch-specific coverage, security exceptions, and commercial terms are unsettled.",
    "scenario_2031": "Industry, regulators, and independents dispute what data are necessary, safe, and fairly priced.",
    "scenario_2041": "Some product classes adopt standardized access while luxury mechanical and connected devices follow different models.",
    "scenario_2051": "Outcomes range from interoperable professional access to tightly controlled portals; universal openness is unlikely.",
    "stated_likely_trajectory": "Contested infrastructure for repair capability",
    "reported_adoption_horizon": "2026–2051",
    "supplied_overall_direction_confidence": "Low to medium",
    "supplied_forecast_class": "Conditional forecast",
    "stated_human_skill_effect": "Could broaden independent competence or centralize it through credentialing",
    "reported_capital_intensity": "Medium",
    "stated_ecosystem_openness": "The central policy dispute is openness itself",
    "reported_production_or_service": "Service",
    "work_contexts": "service",
    "stated_principal_benefit": "Longer product life, competition, and regional service capacity",
    "stated_principal_constraint": "IP, cybersecurity, liability, authentication, and commercial resistance",
    "supplied_preservation_safety_governance_issue": "Poorly designed access can expose security or become nominal access at prohibitive cost",
    "source_keys": "FWT-S018;FWT-S020;FWT-S021;FWT-S022;FWT-S025;FWT-S026;FWT-S027"
  }
]